【广发宏观陈嘉荔】美联储12月会继续降息吗？停止缩表的考量是什么？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4% is seen as a response to economic conditions, with market focus shifting towards guidance for December's rate decisions and the end of the balance sheet reduction plan [1][8]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to reduce the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the second rate cut since the resumption of easing in September 2025 [1][8]. - Stephen Miran, a board member, voted against the decision, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, but this view did not gain widespread support [1][8]. FOMC Statement and Economic Indicators - The FOMC statement indicated that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with a slight adjustment in language regarding employment risks, suggesting a softening labor market despite data gaps due to government shutdowns [2][10]. - The FOMC announced the end of the balance sheet reduction (QT) starting December 1 and will reinvest proceeds from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) into U.S. Treasury bills [2][10]. Powell's Press Conference Insights - Jerome Powell's comments reflected a hawkish stance regarding potential rate cuts in December, highlighting significant internal disagreements within the Fed about the direction of monetary policy [3][12]. - Powell acknowledged a slowdown in job growth, attributing part of this to a decline in labor force growth, while maintaining an optimistic view on inflation, estimating core inflation to be around 2.2%-2.3% when excluding tariff impacts [3][15]. Balance Sheet Reduction and Market Liquidity - Powell emphasized that the Fed would halt balance sheet reduction when bank reserves exceed the level deemed "ample," noting rising repo rates and increased use of the standing repo facility (SRF) as indicators of liquidity pressures [4][16]. - The Fed's experience from the September 2019 liquidity crisis informs its current approach, as it seeks to avoid a repeat of that situation by monitoring liquidity conditions closely [5][18]. Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - Following the FOMC meeting, market expectations for a December rate cut decreased, with a two-thirds probability now estimated based on futures markets [7][37]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 9 basis points to 4.07% and the 2-year yield rising by 12 basis points to 3.59%, reflecting a repricing of short-term policy expectations [7][37].