研报 | CSP、主权云需求持续强劲，预估2026年AI服务器出货将年增逾20%

Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is expected to grow significantly, with global shipments projected to increase by over 20% in 2026, reaching a 17% share of the overall server market [2] - In 2025, AI server shipments were slightly revised down to a 24% growth rate due to delays in NVIDIA's product rollout, while the market value is expected to grow by nearly 48% [5] - The competitive landscape for AI chip suppliers indicates that NVIDIA will hold about 70% of the market in 2025, but this is expected to decline in 2026 as North American CSPs and Chinese self-developed chips gain strength [5] AI Server Market Performance - The AI server market is driven by robust demand from cloud service providers and sovereign cloud initiatives, alongside the flourishing of AI inference applications [2] - The value of AI servers is anticipated to grow by over 30% in 2026, with revenue from AI servers expected to account for 74% of the overall server market [5] HBM Consumption and Pricing - HBM consumption is projected to increase by over 70% in 2026, driven by high demand for advanced AI chips and the introduction of new products [6] - The demand for HBM is expected to rise by over 130% in 2025, with a continued increase in 2026 due to the penetration of new chip models [6] - HBM3e pricing is expected to rise by 5-10% in 2025, but competitive pressures may lead to price reductions in 2026 as multiple suppliers enter the market [6][7] Future Developments - HBM4 is currently in the sampling phase, with expectations for higher sales prices compared to HBM3e, although potential price negotiations may arise if all suppliers complete their validations [7]