光伏周价格 | 产业链供需双弱，价格走势聚焦政策落地

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to potential price declines across various segments, including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules [4][8][11]. Polysilicon - Current industry inventory remains above 420,000 tons, with expectations of further increases due to high downstream inventory and cautious purchasing behavior [4]. - Supply dynamics are mixed, with some manufacturers achieving full production while others are reducing operational rates, indicating a complex supply landscape [5]. - The market is anticipated to experience a "supply-demand dual weakness" in November, with high inventory levels putting pressure on prices, although major polysilicon producers show slight willingness to maintain prices [6]. Wafers - Wafer inventory is currently above 20 GW, with a prevailing expectation of price declines as battery manufacturers slow down their procurement [7]. - The overall transaction prices for wafers have slightly decreased, with first-tier companies showing price support while second and third-tier companies are increasing low-price orders [8]. - The market expects wafer manufacturers to potentially implement production cuts to stabilize prices amid high supply pressure [8]. Cells - Battery inventory is maintained at around 5-7 days, with a notable differentiation in inventory levels based on size, particularly with 210 RN facing less pressure compared to 183 N [9]. - The overall price outlook for November indicates continued downward pressure due to weakening terminal demand and the influence of component pricing [10]. Modules - The demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to decline as the winter season approaches, with domestic and international installation demands decreasing [11]. - Short-term demand is primarily supported by domestic centralized projects, particularly for 210 models, but this is expected to diminish as project deliveries conclude [11]. - Overall, the module market is under pressure from declining terminal demand and insufficient order reserves, leading to a challenging pricing environment [12].