【招银研究|海外宏观】驶入“迷雾区”——美联储议息会议点评（2025年10月）

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75-4.00%, with plans to stop balance sheet reduction on December 1 and gradually replace maturing agency debt with short-term Treasury bonds. The Fed believes inflation, employment, and financial stability remain controllable, but there are significant internal disagreements regarding future rate cuts [1][5]. Economic Summary - The Fed continues to assess the coexistence of inflationary and employment risks, noting that both "dual risks" are easing. While inflation has upward risks, the overall trend remains manageable. The analysis indicates that commodity inflation is supported by tariffs but is likely one-time, housing service inflation is expected to decline, and other service inflation pressures are weak due to a soft labor market [3][4]. - Employment risks are present but marginal changes may have stabilized. Despite data gaps from government shutdowns, state-level unemployment claims and job vacancies provide decision-making references, showing stable employment conditions over the past month [3]. Policy Summary - The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-4.0%. There is increasing disagreement among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with some suggesting a pause to observe conditions. Powell likened the current situation to "driving in fog," suggesting a cautious approach [5]. - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, replacing maturing mortgage-backed securities with short-term Treasury bonds. Current bank reserves are nearing acceptable levels, and signs of tightening liquidity in the money market have emerged [5]. Forward-Looking Summary - The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is entering a phase of increased disagreement. In the short term, due to potential government shutdown impacts, a rate cut in December is likely. In the medium term, the policy rate may approach 3% by 2026, with expectations of 3-4 rate cuts before the end of 2026 [6]. - The ongoing investment wave in artificial intelligence and the K-shaped economic recovery are expected to continue, with inflation and employment risks remaining manageable for the foreseeable future [6]. Strategy Summary - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with pricing for a December cut dropping from 23 basis points to 17 basis points, leading to a hawkish market sentiment. U.S. Treasury yields have risen across the board, with the 2-year yield up by 10.8 basis points to 3.60% and the 10-year yield up by 10.0 basis points to 4.098% [7][8]. - The U.S. dollar has strengthened slightly, with the dollar index rising by 0.56% to 99.22. The stock market remains stable, with mixed performances among major indices [8]. - In the medium to long term, the U.S. stock market may face increased volatility, transitioning from a phase driven by valuation and earnings to one driven by earnings growth amid heightened market fluctuations [8].