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摩尔投研精选·2025-10-30 10:23

Group 1: TMT Sector Insights - Public funds have increased their positions in the TMT sector, with a notable rise of 11.20 percentage points to a historical high of 39.85% [1] - The most significant increases in the TMT sector were observed in electronics (+6.85 percentage points), telecommunications (+3.95 percentage points), power equipment (+2.39 percentage points), and non-ferrous metals (+1.31 percentage points) [1] - The overall market trend shows a preference for large-cap growth stocks, with significant increases in the ChiNext, STAR Market, and CSI 300 indices [1] Group 2: Aluminum Industry Dynamics - Rio Tinto is considering halting operations at its Tomago aluminum smelter in New South Wales, Australia, which produces 590,000 tons of aluminum annually, accounting for approximately 40% of Australia's total aluminum output [2] - The rising electricity costs, which currently constitute over 40% of the operational costs at Tomago, are a critical factor influencing the potential shutdown [2] - The global aluminum demand is expected to grow significantly, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, with emerging demand projected to increase from 14% to 22% between 2024 and 2030 [3] Group 3: Demand Trends in Aluminum - Rapid economic growth in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East is anticipated to drive aluminum demand, with a CAGR of 3.7% and 2.4% respectively from 2024 to 2030, making these regions the fastest-growing in terms of aluminum demand [4] - The global visible inventory is continuously declining, increasing the sensitivity of aluminum prices to supply and demand changes, while trade tariffs may lead companies to maintain higher inventory levels [4] - The aluminum industry is entering a historically significant period of supply-demand improvement, supporting the notion that aluminum prices are likely to rise, while industry profits are expected to continue increasing [4]