SK海力士的“售罄”意味着什么？大摩：向2017-2018“存储超级周期”靠拢，上调DRAM价格预期

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that SK Hynix's HBM high-bandwidth memory being "sold out" signals the beginning of a new "super cycle" in the storage market driven by AI demand, with Morgan Stanley raising its DRAM price forecast to a year-on-year increase of 30% and expecting supply tightness to persist until 2026 [1][3][11]. Financial Performance - SK Hynix reported record high performance in Q3, with operating profit soaring by 62%, driven by the complete sell-out of HBM high-bandwidth memory [3][4]. - Revenues for Q3 reached 24,448.9 billion KRW, a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 39% increase year-on-year [4]. - Operating margin improved to 47%, up from 41% in the previous quarter and 40% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The AI boom is identified as the core driver behind the surge in demand for storage chips, leading to rapid depletion of industry inventory and supporting ongoing price increases [7][10]. - SK Hynix's management confirmed that DDR5 memory chip inventory has dropped to a critically low level of about two weeks, indicating strong market demand [7][10]. Supply Chain and Capital Expenditure - Morgan Stanley estimates that SK Hynix's capital expenditure will significantly increase, projected to rise from approximately 27 trillion KRW in 2025 to 35 trillion KRW in 2026, primarily to support HBM production [10][11]. - The company is expected to enhance its production capabilities through technology migration, including advancements in DDR5 and NAND flash memory [10]. Analyst Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for SK Hynix for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 5%, 14%, and 15% respectively, reflecting the positive outlook on the company's performance [5][11]. - The target price for SK Hynix has been adjusted to 630,000 KRW, indicating a potential upside of 15% from current levels, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.6 times for 2026 [5][11]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the unexpected surge in demand for commodity DRAM and NAND has laid the groundwork for a significant supply shortage in 2026, with stronger market conditions likely to persist [10][11].