黄金价格，还有机会反弹吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid decline in gold prices is attributed to a typical technical correction after a significant increase of over 30% in the past month, with prices dropping from a high of $4300/oz to a low of $3900/oz [3][4][5]. Market Analysis - The sell-off in gold is primarily driven by speculative funds that entered the market during the recent price surge. These funds are taking profits due to overbought conditions and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding tariff issues between major countries [6][7][8]. - Despite the recent price drop, the holdings in gold ETFs remain stable, indicating a long-term positive outlook on gold fundamentals by most market participants [10][11]. - Central banks and private purchases of physical gold have not significantly decreased, suggesting that the purchasing power support for gold remains intact [12][13]. Future Outlook - The current price drop is likely a temporary correction, setting the stage for a potential future increase in gold prices [15]. - The direction of gold prices will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's actions regarding the dollar, particularly the likelihood of interest rate cuts and potential balance sheet expansion [16][17][19]. - Market expectations indicate a high probability of interest rate cuts this month, with a 100% bet on a cut by December, but the immediate impact on gold prices may be limited [18]. - A potential expansion of the Fed's balance sheet could have a more substantial impact on the dollar and, consequently, on gold prices [20][21]. Price Range Expectations - The price of gold is expected to fluctuate between $3800 and $4200/oz in the near term, with $3800 likely serving as a relative low point during this technical correction [22][25]. - Current observations show that gold prices have rebounded to $4000/oz, but the momentum for further increases to $4300/oz appears limited until significant positive developments occur [23][24].