国泰海通证券研究·2025-10-30 11:48Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path due to the "data fog" caused by the U.S. government shutdown and the realities of economic and inflation trends, leading to a downward adjustment in the expectations for a rate cut in December compared to before the meeting [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there was significant internal disagreement regarding this decision, with some members advocating for maintaining rates and others for a larger cut of 50 basis points [2] - Powell's statements introduced greater uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, indicating an increase in divergence in monetary policy paths [2] - The Fed will cease balance sheet reduction on December 1 to alleviate tightening liquidity in the money market [2] - The Fed expressed a more optimistic view on the economy and greater confidence in controlling inflation [2] Group 2: Employment and Economic Conditions - The current logic for the Fed's rate cuts is based on the pressure from declining employment outweighing the upward pressure from inflation [3] - Structural changes in the U.S. labor market, such as the rise in long-term unemployment and a decrease in immigrant participation, are contributing to a slowdown in economic drivers [3] - The government shutdown has lasted nearly a month, with historical context indicating the longest shutdown was 35 days, and new employment data may emerge before the next meeting on December 10 [3] Group 3: Asset Price Expectations - The article anticipates that major asset prices will continue to reflect the logic of a preemptive rate cut cycle, with U.S. Treasury yields expected to decline further but at a slower pace [3] - U.S. equities are expected to remain supported, particularly in technology and sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, banking, and small-cap stocks [3] - The U.S. dollar index is projected to experience fluctuations, while the long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue [3]