国泰海通 · 晨报1031｜数据“迷雾”下美联储分歧加大

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision reflects significant internal disagreements and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy, influenced by economic data obscured by the government shutdown [3][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but there were notable dissenting opinions among board members regarding the extent of the cut, with one member advocating for no change and another suggesting a 50 basis point reduction [3]. - The Fed plans to halt balance sheet reduction on December 1 to alleviate tightening liquidity in the money market [3]. Economic Outlook - The Fed expressed a more optimistic view on the economy, indicating increased confidence in controlling inflation despite the prevailing uncertainties [3]. - Employment pressures are expected to outweigh inflationary pressures, suggesting that the likelihood of continued rate cuts remains high [4]. Market Reactions - Asset prices are anticipated to follow a preventive rate cut cycle logic, with U.S. Treasury yields expected to decline further, albeit at a slower pace [4]. - The U.S. stock market, particularly technology and interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and banking, is expected to maintain support [4]. - The U.S. dollar index is projected to experience initial declines followed by fluctuations, while the long-term bullish trend for gold is expected to continue [4].