中泰资管天团 | 田瑀：价值投资者很难享受AI时代的红利？

Core Viewpoint - The rapid changes in the world, particularly in the stock market, are largely centered around artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a once-in-a-century opportunity akin to the discovery of electricity [1][10] - Value investing is not fundamentally opposed to benefiting from technological changes, as any field where value can be assessed falls within the scope of value investing, including technology [1][9] Semiconductor Industry - The demand growth in the semiconductor industry is expected to outpace the past decade due to AI development, and the current phase is just the beginning of this technological transformation [4] - The wafer foundry business exemplifies a "value assessable" sector, as the business model remains unchanged despite the arrival of AI, and the demand for high-performance computing is increasing [4][5] - Factors such as high minimum economic scale, high customer trial-and-error costs, and accumulated learning curves contribute to the creation of a competitive moat in the wafer foundry sector [5] Storage Industry - The storage industry is also benefiting from AI technology, with manufacturing and design characterized by high economies of scale and significant customer trial-and-error costs [6] - The relationship between computing and storage is changing due to AI advancements, leading to a faster growth in storage demand while the business model remains stable [6] Analog Chips - The analog chip sector is seen as both assessable in value and capable of sharing in the AI era's benefits, with high customer trial-and-error costs and a low share of downstream costs [8] - The development of AI is expected to increase the demand for analog chips, particularly in AI servers and various applications like robotics and smart glasses [8] Long-term Trends - The slowdown or peak of Moore's Law may help mitigate China's relative disadvantages in semiconductor manufacturing, as the progress in single-chip computing power may not meet growing computational demands [9] - Long-term certainty judgments can lead to the emergence of stable business models and companies with wide moats, aligning with traditional research methods in value investing [9] Investment Philosophy - Value investing does not reject progress or technology but adheres to the principle of assessing value to identify understandable stocks and earn within one's capability [10]