FII(SH:601138) 经济观察报·2025-10-30 11:40Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting financial performance of Industrial Fulian, highlighting a record net profit alongside negative operating cash flow and a significant increase in inventory, raising questions about the company's operational dynamics amid the AI boom [1][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Industrial Fulian achieved revenue of 243.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.81%, and a net profit of 10.37 billion yuan, marking the first time quarterly net profit exceeded 10 billion yuan [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 603.93 billion yuan, up 38.4%, and a net profit of 22.49 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 48.52% [2]. Market Dynamics - The company's stock price rose by 9.20% on October 29, closing at 80.80 yuan per share, with a market capitalization reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, driven by sustained AI demand [3]. - The revenue from GPU AI servers increased by over 300% year-on-year, while the revenue from 800G switches surged by over 27 times, indicating strong growth in AI-related products [3][7]. Inventory and Cash Flow Concerns - Industrial Fulian reported a negative operating cash flow of -4.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to increased inventory levels due to strong demand for AI servers [5][11]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company's inventory reached 164.66 billion yuan, a significant increase from 85.27 billion yuan at the end of 2024, indicating a buildup of stock to meet anticipated demand [12]. Business Model and Risks - The company operates on a "assembly factory" model, characterized by low gross margins, with a gross margin of only 6.76% for the first three quarters of 2025, compared to Nvidia's gross margin of 72.4% [11]. - To support the increased inventory, Industrial Fulian has taken on short-term loans amounting to 85.84 billion yuan, up from 35.99 billion yuan at the end of 2024, and extended payment terms with suppliers [13]. Future Outlook - The AI server market is expected to see continued growth, with global demand for AI cabinets projected to exceed 100,000 units in 2025 [8]. - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of demand, as clients may shift focus towards cost-effective AI solutions and self-developed ASICs due to rising cost considerations [14].