特朗普“好好谈”了，中美贸易拐点来了？

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. in Busan, South Korea, signifies a potential thaw in trade relations, with both sides agreeing to enhance cooperation in various sectors including trade and energy, while also addressing key issues such as semiconductor technology and agricultural imports [3][5][9]. Trade Negotiations - The recent talks in Kuala Lumpur resulted in a basic consensus on several issues, including maritime logistics, tariff suspension periods, and cooperation on fentanyl, despite some verbal disputes [5][7]. - The U.S. has reportedly abandoned plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, marking a preliminary breakthrough in trade negotiations [7]. - The core issue in the negotiations remains the semiconductor sector, with both countries recognizing that complete decoupling is impractical, yet there is still room for maneuvering in high-tech areas [9][11]. Key Commodities - Semiconductors, rare earth elements, and soybeans are identified as critical bargaining chips in the negotiations [6][12]. - The U.S. heavily relies on China for rare earth elements, with 97% of its supply being imported, 70% of which comes from China. This dependency makes rare earths a significant leverage point in negotiations [12]. - Soybeans are seen as a more straightforward area for potential agreement, as China has shifted its imports to Brazil, leading to increased prices for Brazilian soybeans. A compromise with the U.S. could help stabilize prices [14]. Economic Implications - The A-share index recently surpassed 4000 points for the first time in a decade, reflecting the positive sentiment surrounding the trade negotiations and their potential impact on economic liquidity [17]. - The U.S. economy is primarily driven by consumer spending, which constitutes over 80% of its GDP. Disruptions in trade with China could adversely affect U.S. stock markets, particularly in the tech sector [19][21]. - The interdependence between the U.S. as a major consumer and China as a leading supplier suggests that cooperation is essential for both economies to address their respective challenges [19][21]. Long-term Outlook - While short-term cooperation appears likely, the underlying competition and strategic rivalry between the two nations will continue to shape the market dynamics in the long run [21][23]. - The ongoing negotiations may lead to temporary positive effects on the stock market, but uncertainties remain regarding the resolution of core issues in high-tech sectors, which could lead to increased market volatility [27][28].