泡泡玛特业绩暴增股价却崩了！新消费高增长神话破灭后的价值重估与龙头破局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the paradox of strong earnings growth in the new consumption sector, particularly for companies like Pop Mart and Laopu Gold, contrasted with significant stock price declines, indicating a rational reassessment by capital markets of future growth sustainability [1][6]. Group 1: Pop Mart's Performance - Pop Mart reported a remarkable earnings growth of 245% to 250% for Q3 2025, with revenue from China increasing by 185% to 190% and overseas revenue soaring by 365% to 370% [3][4]. - Despite these impressive figures, Pop Mart's stock price fell by 8.1% the day after the earnings announcement and has since dropped a total of 16.2% [4][5]. - The stock has experienced a cumulative decline of over 30% since reaching its peak in late August [5]. Group 2: Market Concerns - The market's reaction reflects deep concerns about the sustainability of growth, particularly given the high valuation and profit-taking pressures after a nearly tenfold increase in stock price over 17 months [6][8]. - Although Q3 growth was substantial, the overseas revenue growth rate decreased from 480% in Q1 to 370%, raising worries about a cooling overseas market [8]. Group 3: Laopu Gold's Situation - Laopu Gold, another player in the new consumption sector, has also faced stock price declines, with a drop of 38% since its peak in July, despite significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025 [9][11]. - The company has reported substantial increases in revenue, gross profit, and net profit compared to the previous year, indicating strong operational performance [10]. Group 4: Common Challenges in New Consumption - Both Pop Mart and Laopu Gold face common challenges, including high valuation-induced growth anxiety, scrutiny of business model sustainability, and negative catalysts leading to capital withdrawal [13]. - Traditional consumption fatigue, exemplified by the price drop of Feitian Moutai and reduced consumer spending during the Golden Week, further complicates the growth outlook for new consumption companies [13][14]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategies - New consumption companies are actively seeking ways to navigate their challenges, with international expansion identified as a critical avenue for growth [17]. - Pop Mart's overseas revenue growth is attributed to deepening IP operational capabilities, while Laopu Gold is focusing on enhancing its brand narrative to solidify its high-end market position [20][22]. - The upcoming Q4 is expected to be a traditional sales peak, providing opportunities for performance and valuation recovery for leading new consumption companies [22]. Group 6: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investors may consider using tools like the Hang Seng Consumption ETF to diversify their exposure to the new consumption sector, which has seen significant inflows recently [23][24]. - The Hang Seng Consumption Index's PE ratio is currently at a historically low level, indicating potential for future valuation recovery [25]. - A basket investment approach is recommended to mitigate individual stock risks while capturing the growth potential in the new consumption space [26].