中金 • 联合研究 | 全球天然气的跌宕宽松之路

Core Viewpoint - The global natural gas market is expected to enter a period of easing, but challenges remain. Investment value is gradually shifting towards buyers with strong downstream demand expansion capabilities [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The heating season from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 presents upward price risks for gas. Despite weak performance in 9M25, uncertainties remain due to global LNG capacity not yet reaching peak release, and temperature and geopolitical disturbances could disrupt the current weak balance of global LNG supply and demand. TTF/JKM prices may temporarily rise to around $15/MMBtu [4][26]. - In the medium term, expectations for a relaxed natural gas market are strengthening. Starting in 2026, as new LNG capacities come online, there will be significant downward pressure on spot LNG prices, potentially falling to $8-9/MMBtu in 2026-2027. The long-term premium of spot LNG over long-term contracts may narrow or even turn negative [4][35]. Investment Value Shift - During the tight balance period from 2021 to 2025, resource cost advantages were the core competitiveness of natural gas companies. Integrated companies with resource cost advantages, such as Kunlun Energy, outperformed in stock performance. Looking ahead, as the global natural gas supply and demand enters a new easing cycle starting in 2026, the investment value of companies in the natural gas industry will gradually tilt towards buyers with strong downstream demand expansion capabilities [5][35]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - In 9M25, international and domestic gas prices showed a downward trend, with LNG spot prices in Asia returning to near zero premium. The EU's LNG imports increased significantly due to reduced Russian pipeline gas imports, with a year-on-year increase of 19.2 billion cubic meters to approximately 96.2 billion cubic meters. However, weak demand from China and the gradual release of new capacities have led to a decline in JKM/TTF prices, which fell to around $11/MMBtu as of October 24 [7][10]. - China's gas demand showed slight improvement in July and August 2025, but overall demand remains weak. The apparent consumption of natural gas in China for 1H25 was 2,119.7 billion cubic meters, down 0.9% year-on-year. However, excluding inventory factors, real consumption showed slight growth [14][15]. Geopolitical and Supply Risks - The EU has intensified sanctions against the Russian energy sector, which may significantly disrupt long-term expectations for a relaxed global natural gas market. The EU's cumulative natural gas imports in 9M25 were 2,327 billion cubic meters, with Russian pipeline gas and LNG accounting for 5.6% and 6.2%, respectively. The recent sanctions may lead to further reductions in Russian gas supplies to Europe, tightening the short-term supply-demand balance and supporting prices [4][28][33]. - The construction progress of LNG projects in North America and Qatar may fall short of expectations, potentially prolonging the tight balance in global LNG supply and demand, leading to delayed price declines [56].