中金 • REITs | 春华秋实，消费REITs投资知多少

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the development and valuation characteristics of consumer REITs in China, highlighting the supportive policies and the current market landscape for investment decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Consumer Infrastructure Definition - Consumer infrastructure encompasses a variety of retail formats, including shopping malls, commercial streets, farmers' markets, and community commerce, expanding beyond traditional retail properties [5]. - As of October 24, 2025, there are 11 consumer REITs in China with a total market value of 39.5 billion yuan, accounting for 18% of the C-REITs market [2][7]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis of Consumer REITs - Macroeconomic Factors: The consumer subsidy policies are nearing their end, and the marginal effect on consumption may decrease. Continuous attention to policy direction and implementation is recommended [3][14]. - Market Conditions: Retail supply is declining, with future supply likely shifting towards non-core areas and lower-tier cities. Demand is slowly recovering, with a notable performance difference between first and second-tier cities [3][20]. - Financial Performance: Consumer REITs derive approximately 65%-80% of their income from rent, with an average EBITDA margin of 61% as of Q3 2025, indicating stable financial performance [3][38]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics for Consumer REITs - The distribution rates for listed consumer REITs range from 3.5% to 4.9%, with implied capitalization rates between 3.4% and 5.2%, reflecting a premium over the primary market [4][10]. - The valuation characteristics are influenced by liquidity premiums, asset scarcity, and investor structure, with expectations for price stabilization as more assets are listed [4][10]. Group 4: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply Side: The retail property supply is gradually retreating, with a projected decrease in new supply from 8 million square meters in 2025 to 6 million square meters in 2026 [20]. - Demand Side: Retail demand is recovering slowly, with significant performance disparities between first and second-tier cities. For instance, Fuzhou shows a 6.5% year-on-year growth, while Beijing is at -5.1% [24][25]. Group 5: Financial Structure of Consumer REITs - The income structure of consumer REITs is primarily rental-based, with management fees and other operational costs being complex. The average management fee is estimated to account for 16% of total revenue [38][43]. - The operational costs are divided into fixed management fees and variable management fees, with the latter being performance-based [42][43].