CGI深度 | “十五五”兼顾绿色转型与经济增长的电价走势分析

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and risks associated with electricity pricing in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to ensure both economic growth and green transition while managing the widening gap between wholesale and retail electricity prices [4][10]. Group 1: Electricity Pricing Dynamics - The rapid decline in renewable energy generation costs and increased penetration should ideally lead to lower terminal electricity prices; however, many regions are experiencing rising prices instead, particularly in areas with high market maturity and renewable integration [6][11]. - The widening gap between wholesale and retail prices, referred to as the "scissor difference," poses risks to economic development and long-term green transition, necessitating timely corrections to prevent adverse effects on consumer welfare and industrial competitiveness [26][27]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Dynamics - Three main factors contribute to the widening price gap: increased physical system costs due to higher renewable penetration, legacy costs from past contracts related to renewable support mechanisms, and market power exerted by different market participants [6][35]. - China's electricity market faces significant risks of widening price gaps due to inherent limitations in system flexibility, substantial legacy subsidy shortfalls, and an underdeveloped market mechanism that hampers effective price transmission [7][8]. Group 3: Recommendations for Addressing Price Gaps - To mitigate the risks of widening price gaps, a coordinated effort is needed across policy, market, and system levels, including strengthening market regulation, exploring market-based financing combined with fiscal subsidies, and enhancing system flexibility through increased energy storage and market incentives [8][10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a fair and transparent market environment while addressing historical subsidy burdens to alleviate operational pressures on renewable energy enterprises [8][10]. Group 4: Future Electricity Supply Cost Predictions - The article predicts that during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, China's electricity supply costs may face upward pressure of approximately 5 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour, higher than during the "14th Five-Year Plan," due to rising system costs and legacy issues [7][56]. - The need for significant investments in grid infrastructure and flexible resources to accommodate the growing share of renewables is highlighted as a critical factor driving future electricity supply costs [56][70].