欧洲央行维持三大利率不变：申万期货早间评论-20251031

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank has maintained its three key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit rate at 2.0%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [1] Economic News - The Eurozone's GDP for Q3 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.2%, outperforming market expectations. However, there is a growing divergence in performance among member countries, with France's GDP growing by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, marking the fastest growth rate in 2023, while Germany's GDP remained flat, continuing a 14-quarter period of low performance [5] Domestic News - The consensus from the recent China-U.S. economic talks revealed that the U.S. will cancel the 10% tariff on Chinese goods related to fentanyl and will continue to suspend the 24% tariff for another year. Additionally, the U.S. will pause the implementation of export control rules and investigations related to maritime and logistics for one year, while China will adjust or suspend corresponding countermeasures [6] Industry News - A total of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, significantly supporting key areas and projects, with an expected total investment boost of over 7 trillion yuan. The focus of these tools includes technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade [7] Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Recent declines in gold and silver prices have been followed by a rebound. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week and end quantitative tightening by December 1. However, market expectations for a December rate cut have cooled following hawkish comments from Powell. Geopolitical risks have eased, and central banks are increasing gold reserves amid rising distrust in the financial system, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [2][17] Copper - Copper prices fell in the overnight market, with tight supply of concentrates and smelting profits at breakeven. However, smelting output continues to grow. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates positive growth in power grid investment, while real estate remains weak. A mining accident in Indonesia is likely to create a global copper supply gap, supporting prices in the long term [3][18] Oil - The SC night market saw a decline of 0.24%. The International Energy Agency reported that the daily oil supply from nine OPEC countries with quotas in September was 23.87 million barrels, an increase of 760,000 barrels from August, exceeding their target by 940,000 barrels. Saudi Arabia's daily oil supply was 9.98 million barrels, also up from August, aligning with targets [12] Financial Markets - The U.S. stock indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping below 4000 points. The market's trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 11.587 billion yuan, indicating a potential for continued liquidity in the domestic market [10]