“不粘锅”鲍威尔的降息游戏（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent FOMC meeting in October, highlighting Powell's hawkish stance while also hinting at the possibility of rate cuts by the end of the year, reflecting a complex balance between inflation control and employment concerns [2][6]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Shifts - Since late July, Powell has oscillated between focusing on inflation risks and employment concerns, initially emphasizing tighter monetary policy to combat inflation, but later shifting to a more dovish tone due to employment risks [4]. - The September FOMC meeting saw a 25 basis point rate cut, reinforcing expectations for further cuts by the end of the year, with the market pricing in a total of 75 basis points in cuts [4][6]. Divergence Among Committee Members - The October meeting revealed significant internal disagreements among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with a notable 10 to 2 vote split, indicating a lack of consensus on the necessity of further cuts [6][7]. - Powell's role as chair is to unify decision-making, but the increasing difficulty in achieving this consensus is evident, as he aims to manage expectations while mitigating risks associated with potential policy missteps [7]. Employment and Inflation Outlook - Powell expressed cautious optimism about the labor market, citing stable unemployment claims and job vacancies, yet acknowledged that many indicators suggest a weakening employment landscape [8][12]. - Non-official data indicates ongoing employment risks, exacerbated by the government shutdown, which could have prolonged impacts on the labor market [15]. Inflation Dynamics - Powell introduced a new measure, non-tariff core PCE, suggesting that inflation is not deviating significantly from the 2% target, despite acknowledging the potential impact of tariffs on economic dynamics [17]. - The Fed's approach to inflation remains cautious, with Powell emphasizing the need for close monitoring of economic conditions and the effects of potential rate cuts on the real economy [17]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity Considerations - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction was seen as a necessary adjustment, given the tightening liquidity conditions in the market, with the Fed having successfully reduced its balance sheet by 30.3% over 177 weeks [19][21]. - The current environment does not necessitate a return to quantitative easing unless specific liquidity risks arise [21]. AI and Economic Growth - Powell addressed the impact of AI on economic growth, noting that while AI investments are expected to boost GDP, current capital expenditures remain insensitive to interest rates, reflecting a cautious stance on the relationship between AI and economic performance [24].