储能收益降40%？多企研判浙江电价新政影响

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of time-of-use electricity pricing in Zhejiang is expected to significantly impact the revenue models of commercial and industrial energy storage projects, leading to a potential decrease in profitability and a shift in operational strategies [2][15][18]. Revenue Model Changes - The new pricing policy will change the charging and discharging strategy from "two charge and two discharge" to "one charge during low valley and one discharge during peak" [3][5]. - The peak discharge time has been adjusted, extending the discharge period in spring and autumn while narrowing it in summer and winter, which may affect the overall revenue [3][5]. Impact on Profitability - The proposed changes could lead to a 40% decrease in annual revenue for a 1MWh energy storage project, with the payback period increasing by 3.15 years and the return on investment decreasing by 11.66% [9][10]. - The price difference between peak and valley periods has decreased significantly, with a reduction of 18.82% in the peak-valley price difference [6][8]. Market Demand Shifts - The demand for energy storage is expected to increase among businesses operating night shifts or those with high nighttime electricity consumption, while traditional office-type businesses may see a decrease in compatibility with the new pricing [11][12]. - The market demand structure is anticipated to shift towards larger enterprises that align better with the adjusted peak periods [12]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for energy storage in Zhejiang remains positive due to continuous growth in electricity demand and increasing penetration of renewable energy [15][20]. - The industry is expected to transition from a simple arbitrage model to a more diversified revenue model, incorporating capacity markets and ancillary services [16][20]. Industry Adaptation Strategies - Companies are encouraged to move away from reliance on a single arbitrage model and focus on building diverse revenue streams through technological upgrades and operational innovations [23]. - Collaboration and resource sharing among energy storage companies and virtual power plant operators are recommended to enhance operational efficiency and overall project profitability [23].