如何解读央行恢复国债买卖︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has decided to resume the trading of government bonds after a 10-month suspension, indicating a positive shift in the bond market and a need for liquidity support [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Resuming Bond Trading - The resumption is attributed to a phase of alleviated interest rate risks in the bond market and the necessity to provide liquidity support [3]. - The initial suspension in January was due to overly optimistic market sentiment and rapid declines in government bond yields, which increased interest rate risks and widened the China-U.S. interest rate differential [3]. - Since July, a shift in risk appetite has led to capital outflows from the bond market, causing a rapid increase in the 10-year government bond yield from 1.6% to over 1.8%, stabilizing around this level for a month [3]. - The macroeconomic environment, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and a narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential, has created a favorable context for the PBOC to restart bond trading [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - The resumption of bond trading signals a defined upper limit for bond yields, suggesting limited room for further increases in the 10-year government bond yield [4]. - The PBOC's actions are aimed at enhancing the financial function of government bonds and improving the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [4]. - The recent rise in short-term bond yields has led to a narrowing of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, indicating a potential steepening of the yield curve [4]. - In the short term, the PBOC's bond purchases may focus on the shorter end of the yield curve, with the long end requiring further observation of the scale of bond purchases and equity market performance [4].