我坐上雅万高铁，才看懂东南亚的基建困局

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial challenges faced by the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail (HSR) project in Indonesia, attributing these issues to a combination of over-optimistic demand forecasts, inadequate supporting infrastructure, and management shortcomings rather than solely to the financing model [5][6][10]. Financial Pressure Structural Roots: Gap Between Planning and Reality - The financial difficulties of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR stem from multiple factors, primarily the inadequacies in project planning and supporting infrastructure rather than the financing model itself [10]. - Demand forecasting was overly optimistic, with actual passenger numbers expected to be only 6 million in 2024, significantly lower than projected, leading to insufficient revenue to cover annual interest payments of nearly 20 trillion Indonesian Rupiah [10][11]. - The lack of supporting infrastructure, particularly the "last mile" connectivity, has severely impacted passenger access, negating the time advantages of the high-speed rail [11]. - Cost overruns increased the project cost from $6 billion to $7.2 billion, with management inefficiencies contributing to delays and additional expenses [11][12]. Debt Restructuring Rationality: Commercial Adjustment Rather Than Crisis Rescue - Indonesia's request for debt restructuring, including extending repayment terms and lowering interest rates, is a common practice in large infrastructure projects and reflects a pragmatic approach to market changes [13][14]. - Approximately 30%-40% of infrastructure projects in emerging economies require some form of debt adjustment during initial operations, indicating that such adjustments are not signs of project failure [14]. - China has shown flexibility in debt management in other countries, emphasizing that any restructuring should be based on substantial improvements in operational efficiency and market demand [15]. TOD Model Prospects: From Transportation Project to Urban Engine - The Indonesian government aims to leverage Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) to offset operational losses, which is a sound strategy if executed effectively [16][17]. - Successful international examples, such as Japan's JR East and Hong Kong's MTR, demonstrate the profitability of integrating commercial development around transit stations [17][18]. - Indonesia must avoid pitfalls such as short-term local government actions and excessive financialization that could lead to disorganized development [19]. Infrastructure Cooperation Paradigm Upgrade: From Project Delivery to Shared Operations - The Jakarta-Bandung HSR experience suggests a shift in China's overseas infrastructure cooperation model from a focus on construction to a more integrated approach that includes operational involvement [20][21]. - Engaging multilateral institutions in debt restructuring could facilitate fair and transparent solutions, enhancing project quality and international credibility [21][22]. - China recognizes the need for simultaneous capacity building in host countries, suggesting a comprehensive approach to training and institutional development [22]. Development Rights and Real Constraints: A New Understanding of Modernization - The article emphasizes that Indonesia has the right to pursue its modernization path, with high-speed rail representing a significant aspect of its industrial and technological aspirations [23][24]. - However, the pursuit of modernization must align with objective realities, as inadequate planning and institutional capacity can lead to financial pressures [24][25]. - The experience of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR serves as a learning opportunity for Indonesia to enhance its infrastructure planning and execution capabilities [25][26]. Conclusion: From Setbacks to Maturity - The financial pressures of the Jakarta-Bandung HSR highlight the complexities of large infrastructure projects and the importance of sustainable economic considerations in international cooperation [26][27]. - The initiation of debt restructuring negotiations reflects a mature approach from both parties, focusing on collaborative problem-solving rather than blame [27][28].