专家预测90%的预制菜企业将消失，谁会是幸存者？

Core Viewpoint - The pre-prepared food industry is facing significant challenges, with predictions that only about 5,000 out of the current 68,000 companies will survive in the next five years, indicating a potential 90% failure rate [3][19]. Group 1: Current Industry Challenges - The pre-prepared food industry is experiencing a downturn, with major companies reporting significant profit declines. For instance, Weizhi Xiang's net profit dropped by 24.46% to 31.946 million yuan, while Huifa Foods' losses increased from 16.43 million yuan to 29.99 million yuan [7][8]. - The demand for pre-prepared food is shrinking, particularly in the B-end market, which is primarily driven by restaurant businesses. The rise of "ghost kitchens" that rely on pre-prepared food is also being challenged by new business models [9][10]. - The trend towards "freshly cooked" meals in restaurants is growing, with many establishments emphasizing live cooking to attract customers, further reducing the demand for pre-prepared options [12][16]. Group 2: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - A new national standard for pre-prepared food is being developed, which will require restaurants to disclose whether they use pre-prepared ingredients, potentially impacting consumer trust and demand [17][18]. - The rapid growth of pre-prepared food companies has led to a mixed quality in the market, with many businesses struggling to maintain profitability due to cost-cutting measures [18][19]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - Despite current challenges, there is still potential for growth in the pre-prepared food sector, particularly as consumer lifestyles evolve towards convenience and efficiency. Countries like the U.S. and Japan have seen high penetration rates of pre-prepared food, suggesting a similar trend could emerge in China [21][25]. - The increasing chain restaurant model in China is expected to drive demand for standardized pre-prepared food products, as businesses seek to balance quality, cost, and efficiency [25][26]. - Successful examples exist, such as Sally's, which has thrived using pre-prepared food, indicating that there are viable business models within the industry [26][27]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The pre-prepared food industry is likely to undergo significant restructuring, with a focus on quality and transparency. Companies that adapt to these changes and maintain high standards may survive and thrive in the long term [28][29].