【广发宏观郭磊】10月PMI、宏观面与股债定价

Core Viewpoint - The October PMI data indicates a slight decline below expectations, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.0, down 0.8 points month-on-month, reflecting a lack of consistent economic signals in the short term [1][5][15]. Summary by Sections PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0, lower than the previous value of 49.8, while the service PMI is at 50.2, slightly up from 50.1. The construction PMI stands at 49.1, down from 49.3 [5][11]. - The October EPMI (Emerging Industries PMI) saw a significant increase of 7.3 points to 59.7, marking the largest historical increase for this month [5][6]. Production and Economic Signals - A notable contraction in the production sector is observed, with production, procurement, new orders, and backlog orders indices decreasing by 2.2, 2.6, 0.9, and 0.7 points respectively [8][11]. - The production index fell sharply from 51.9 in September to 49.7 in October, attributed to uncertainties in tariffs and shipping environments, leading companies to adopt a more cautious production approach [8][10]. Recent Developments in Trade - Recent negotiations between China and the U.S. in late October resulted in the cancellation of certain tariffs and a pause on additional tariffs, which may positively influence the PMI production index in November [2][10]. Construction Sector Insights - A positive signal from the October PMI series is the rebound in new orders and business activity expectations in the construction sector, with increases of 3.7 and 3.6 points respectively, reaching the highest levels since March and February [3][11]. - The National Development and Reform Commission reported that 500 billion yuan has been fully allocated to support over 2,300 projects, with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and urban infrastructure [3][11]. Market Implications - The October PMI reflects a manufacturing PMI retreat and a decline in the construction index, indicating that the rise in infrastructure has not fully offset the decline in real estate investment, which is favorable for the bond market [4][15]. - The central bank's resumption of bond purchases suggests a potential decrease in interest rates, although the space for significant rate cuts may be limited due to the ongoing fiscal policies and rising construction orders [4][15].