券商三季报业绩爆发，或迎补涨良机？

Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector has shown strong performance in Q3 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit, yet the sector's stock performance has lagged behind broader market indices, indicating a potential for a rebound in stock prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - As of October 28, 2025, 14 brokerages reported a combined net profit of approximately 46.726 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.42% [1]. - Three brokerages saw their net profits double, while eight others experienced growth rates between 50% and 100% [1]. Business Drivers - Brokerage Business: The average daily trading volume reached 1.6 trillion yuan, a 103.1% increase year-on-year, driving net income growth in brokerage services [2]. - Investment Business: Rising stock prices and bond market volatility contributed to increased income from investment activities [2]. - Credit Business: The average daily margin balance was 1.9 trillion yuan, up 29.9% year-on-year, supporting growth in credit business income [2]. Market Performance Discrepancy - Despite strong earnings, the brokerage sector index (399975.SZ) had a year-to-date increase of only 6.99%, significantly lower than the 19.24% and 26.92% increases of the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, respectively [2][3]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio for the brokerage sector is 19.94, which is at a low point compared to the past two years [2]. Historical Context and Future Expectations - Historical trends indicate that the brokerage sector has previously experienced periods of lagging performance followed by rebounds, suggesting a potential for similar patterns to emerge [3]. - Positive signals for the sector's future include a sustained active market, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 4000 points and the total A-share market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [3]. Policy and Innovation Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of direct financing and related services, which could benefit brokerages with strong capabilities in investment banking and asset securitization [3]. - Chinese brokerages are diversifying their international business and shifting towards proactive asset management, moving away from reliance on market conditions for growth [3]. Investment Opportunities - The brokerage sector is positioned as a significant investment opportunity due to its high growth potential and supportive policy environment, with the brokerage ETF (159842) offering a low management fee of 0.2% [3].