招商银行研究·2025-10-31 09:41Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing a strong expansion with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9% for Q3, driven by robust consumer spending, investment, and exports [12] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75-4.00% and plans to stop balance sheet reduction by December [11][12] - Employment data shows potential risks, with a projected unemployment rate of around 4.5% due to weak demand and limited hiring outside of AI-related sectors [15] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, with a potential endpoint around 3% [26] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rates, indicating a cautious approach amid a recovering economy, while Japan's central bank remains dovish under new leadership [27][39] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommendation for cash is to maintain a standard allocation due to stable returns, while fixed income strategies suggest a focus on short-duration bonds as yields are expected to decline [9] - Equity strategies favor a balanced approach with a focus on high-dividend stocks and technology sectors, anticipating continued upward movement in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9] - Gold is expected to enter a short-term adjustment phase but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, with potential challenges in valuation [62] Currency and Bond Market - The US dollar is expected to remain in a range-bound trading pattern due to mixed signals from the Fed and economic conditions, with a projected range of 95-103 [55] - US Treasury yields are anticipated to decline slightly, with a recommendation to focus on 2-5 year maturities due to the ongoing rate cut cycle [49] Commodity Insights - Oil prices are under pressure with expectations of a downward trend due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, despite short-term rebounds [70] - Copper supply is tightening due to disruptions in major mining operations, which may lead to increased prices in the future [71] Chinese Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected at 4.8% for Q3, with external demand remaining strong while internal demand shows signs of weakness [74] - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate the economy and achieve growth targets, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation [85][86]