克而瑞地产研究·2025-10-31 11:08Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in the sales performance of China's top real estate companies, with a 41.9% year-on-year decrease in sales turnover for October 2025, despite a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3][19][18]. Sales Performance Overview - In October 2025, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 253 billion yuan, marking a 41.9% decrease compared to the same month last year [3][19]. - Cumulatively, from January to October 2025, these companies recorded a total sales turnover of 25,766.6 billion yuan, which is a 16% year-on-year decline, with the rate of decline increasing by 4.2 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [19][22]. Market Trends - The new housing market supply has significantly decreased, reaching its second-lowest level of the year in October 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 36% in new home transactions [17][28]. - The cumulative transaction volume in 30 monitored cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 9,825 million square meters, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decline [3][28]. City-Level Analysis - In first-tier cities, the total transaction volume remained stable compared to the previous month, but year-on-year declines were substantial, with Guangzhou leading in transactions but still experiencing a 46% drop compared to last year [28][29]. - Second and third-tier cities showed a slight month-on-month increase in transactions, but year-on-year adjustments were deep, with some cities like Qingdao showing resilience with a 30% year-on-year growth [29][31]. Sales Thresholds - The sales thresholds for the top 100 real estate companies have decreased compared to the same period last year, with the threshold for the top 10 companies dropping by 9.4% to 678.9 billion yuan [22][24]. - The sales thresholds for the top 30 and top 50 companies also saw reductions of 5.4% and 11.6%, respectively [22][24]. Future Outlook - The article predicts that the absolute volume of new home transactions will continue to fluctuate at low levels, with potential further increases in year-on-year declines due to high base effects from the previous year [18][31].