五年规划在A股市场的表现特征

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" serves as a crucial guide for national economic and industrial development, indicating significant policy shifts and their potential impact on the capital market [1][2] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) emphasizes a proactive policy approach to address both strategic opportunities and risks, focusing on enhancing economic growth and productivity [1][2] Policy Signals from the "15th Five-Year Plan" - The plan aims to build a modern industrial system and develop new productive forces, balancing the expansion of advantages with the reinforcement of weaknesses [2] - It emphasizes upgrading traditional industries while promoting emerging sectors such as renewable energy, aerospace, and advanced manufacturing [2] - The plan addresses insufficient effective demand by enhancing resident consumption rates and optimizing income distribution [2] Market Characteristics During Previous Five-Year Plans - Historical data shows that from the "10th Five-Year Plan" (2001) to the present, the Chinese capital market has experienced coordinated growth in both scale and quality [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a trend of increasing low points during each five-year planning period, with a general reduction in annualized volatility, indicating enhanced market stability [3][4] Market Performance Around Five-Year Plan Releases - The release of five-year plans has demonstrated a calendar effect on the A-share market, with significant short-term market reactions following the announcements [5][6] - Statistical analysis of market performance around the release dates shows varying impacts, with some plans leading to positive market movements shortly after their announcements [5][6] Industry Performance Linked to Policy - Emerging industries highlighted in the "12th" to "14th Five-Year Plans" have shown varied market performance, with certain sectors outperforming the overall market index [7][9] - Sectors such as environmental protection, semiconductors, and new energy have benefited from both policy support and favorable market conditions, acting as accelerators for growth [9][10]