国泰海通｜固收：低利率预期变化之时：溯因寻锚，换挡启程

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a shift in macroeconomic anchors with a focus on fiscal policy leading and monetary policy supporting, leading to a convergence of interest rate cut expectations towards the "natural rate" [1] - It discusses the micro changes in bond market pricing, highlighting the increasing influence of interbank systems on bond pricing and the growing proportion of multi-asset investors in the bond market [1] - The article predicts a weak oscillation pattern in the bond market for 2026, with a return of ticket interest rate strategies and a focus on flexible varieties for wave operations [1] Group 2 - The article suggests a focus on diversified fixed-income assets in a low-interest-rate environment, identifying structural opportunities in convertible bonds, public/private REITs, Chinese dollar bonds, and overseas bonds [1] - It notes that bond ETFs may become a new development direction amid the expanding yield gap in a low-interest-rate environment [1]