中美缓和: 新阶段下的期待

Core Viewpoint - The recent high-level meeting between China and the U.S. resulted in a constructive agreement aimed at extending the period of trade tension alleviation and raising the threshold for risks, with a goal to reach a comprehensive trade agreement within a year [4][6][11] Summary by Sections Meeting Outcomes - A one-year truce agreement was reached, which is notable as it extends beyond the previous 90-day renewals, aligning with the U.S. midterm elections to prevent trade tensions from escalating during the election year [6][11] - China will suspend the new export control regulations on rare earths set to take effect in October, while the U.S. will pause the 50% equity penetration export control rules announced on September 29, which was somewhat unexpected [6][10] Tariffs and Trade Measures - The U.S. reduced the fentanyl tariff by 10%, and China will correspondingly adjust its retaliatory tariffs, including the cancellation of the 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans, facilitating large-scale imports [8][10] - Both sides agreed to suspend the additional shipping fees and maintain the 24% reciprocal tariffs for one year, which aligns with market expectations [9][10] Future Engagements - Trump is expected to visit China in April next year, and he has invited President Xi Jinping to visit the U.S., indicating a potential for further diplomatic engagement [9][10] - Discussions included the semiconductor trade, but did not cover high-end chips like Blackwell, which fell short of market optimism [9][10] Symbolic Significance - The meeting marked the first encounter between the two leaders in this term, suggesting a longer period of easing tensions and a framework for addressing future issues [11] - The initial phase of U.S.-China relations will focus on soybean imports and fentanyl tariffs, while the latter phase will aim for a comprehensive trade agreement, indicating a new cycle of negotiations [11]