硬AI·2025-10-31 14:05Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that Google has positioned itself across the entire AI value chain, leveraging its distribution capabilities with over 1 billion users and cost advantages, indicating a promising outlook for AI monetization [2][3]. Financial Performance - Alphabet's Q3 revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, with search business growing by 15% and cloud computing revenue increasing by 34%, achieving a profit margin of 23% [2][3][7]. - Paid clicks and cost per click (CPC) in the search business both grew by 7% year-over-year, alleviating concerns about AI potentially eroding traditional search profitability [7]. - YouTube's combined revenue from ads and subscriptions grew by 15%, with total subscription users exceeding 300 million, highlighting the increasing contribution of subscription services [7]. Capital Expenditure - The company raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance from approximately $85 billion to a range of $91-93 billion, with expectations for 2026 capital expenditure adjusted to about $122 billion, reflecting a 32% year-over-year increase [4][9]. - The increase in capital expenditure is expected to impact financial statements, with Q3 depreciation expenses rising by 41% to $1.6 billion [9]. AI Integration and Growth - Goldman Sachs emphasized the management's positive outlook on the scaling of AI solutions for both consumers and enterprises, showcasing various successful AI applications [10][11]. - Google is well-positioned to adapt to the evolution of search products, benefiting from a large user base, accelerated product innovation, and cost advantages compared to competitors [11]. Long-term Growth Potential - Beyond core business and cloud performance, Goldman Sachs highlighted Alphabet's long-term growth potential, particularly through projects like Waymo and quantum computing, which may provide additional growth options in the future [13]. - The company raised its GAAP earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 from $9.86 to $10.49, and for 2026 from $10.51 to $10.71 [14]. Valuation and Target Price - Based on updated forecasts, Alphabet's current trading price reflects approximately 26.5 times and 23.0 times the GAAP EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, respectively [15]. - Goldman Sachs set a target price of $330 for Alphabet, indicating about a 20% upside potential from the current stock price [15].