【百威亚太（1876.HK）】整体销量承压，中国市场持续调整——2025年三季报点评（陈彦彤/汪航宇/聂博雅）

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.555 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4% in organic terms, and normalized EBITDA of $438 million, down 6.9% year-on-year, while normalized net profit attributable to the parent was $204 million, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.2512 million kiloliters, reflecting an organic year-on-year decline of 8.6% [4]. - Revenue per hectoliter in Q3 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 51.4%, showing a slight increase year-on-year [4]. - Normalized EBITDA margin improved to 28.2%, with an organic year-on-year increase of 0.46 percentage points, primarily benefiting from favorable commodity prices and cost management measures [4]. Group 2: Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q3 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA saw organic year-on-year declines of 12.0% and 11.9%, respectively, with sales volume down 9.9% and revenue per hectoliter down 2.4% year-on-year. Notably, the Indian market showed strong performance with double-digit revenue growth [4]. - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q3 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA experienced organic year-on-year growth of 3.9% and 8.7%, respectively, with sales volume down 0.6% and revenue per hectoliter up 4.5% year-on-year. South Korea's performance was stable, with significant growth in non-alcoholic beer and RTD categories [4]. Group 3: China Market Dynamics - In Q3 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA in China saw organic year-on-year declines of 15.1% and 17.9%, respectively, with sales volume down 11.4%, primarily due to business layout, weak on-the-go channels, and inventory management impacts [5]. - Revenue per hectoliter in China decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, attributed to increased investments in innovative products and brand promotion, as well as adverse brand mix effects during inventory management [5]. - The company has been optimizing channel inventory, with significant reductions in inventory levels and turnover days, outperforming industry averages. Future strategies will focus on enhancing non-on-the-go channels and investing in premium brands like Budweiser and Corona [5].