【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的10月经济：价格篇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of various commodity prices in October, highlighting the resilience of the non-ferrous metals sector amid macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply disruptions from Indonesia [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 870 points as of October 30, reflecting a 0.6% increase from the end of September, with energy prices down 0.6% and non-ferrous metal prices up 2.2% month-on-month [1][4]. - In the domestic market, prices of thermal coal and coking coal futures saw significant increases of 9.2% and 19.1% respectively, while chemical products, cement, and glass prices showed notable declines of -1.9%, -3.1%, and -10.6% respectively [8][10]. - The South China comprehensive index remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year average decrease of 0.3% compared to a previous increase of 6.0% [8]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index in major cities continued to adjust, with declines of -1.2%, -0.7%, -1.7%, and -0.9% in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen respectively as of October 20 [10]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - Prices in emerging sectors such as storage chips and lithium carbonate remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry saw a price decline, with the photovoltaic industry composite index (SPI) down 0.5% month-on-month [2][11]. - The DXI index, representing the semiconductor (DRAM) industry, surged by 93.5% month-on-month, indicating a robust outlook for the memory sector [2][11]. Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - In the export shipping sector, the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) fell by 6.1% month-on-month, while the WCID container freight indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York increased by 5.5% and 8.9% respectively [13]. - The average value of the road logistics price index showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, indicating a gradual decline from the peak observed in June [15]. Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 7.8% and key vegetable prices rising by 13.6% month-on-month [3][15].