【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的10月经济：数量篇

Group 1 - The core consumption data during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday shows stability, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption. Daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively. Notable sales growth was observed in mobile phones (18.8%), automobiles (12.6%), and jewelry (41.1%) [1][6][7] - The power generation growth rate in October significantly exceeded that of September, attributed to high temperatures in southern regions. Cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 8% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 12.6% in September [1][7] - Industrial operating rates showed mixed results, with most year-on-year growth rates lower than previous values due to elevated bases. The operating rate of blast furnaces increased by 0.7 percentage points month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8 percentage points [2][8][9] Group 2 - The crude steel production growth rate declined year-on-year, with key enterprises reporting a decrease of 2.3%. The production of rebar fell by 13.8% year-on-year, indicating a divergence in demand from the real estate and manufacturing sectors [2][10][11] - The photovoltaic industry continues to improve, with the Solar Manager Index (SMI) rising to 126.08 points, marking a 7.0 percentage point increase month-on-month and a 1.8 percentage point increase year-on-year [3][13][14] - Infrastructure physical workload indicators have not shown significant recovery. The funding availability rate for construction sites increased by 0.2 percentage points, while the asphalt operating rate recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [3][16][17] Group 3 - Real estate sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of 29.0% in daily transactions across 30 major cities. The sales in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by 39.6%, 21.0%, and 29.6% respectively [4][18][19] - Retail sales of passenger cars experienced a year-on-year decline of 7% during the first 26 days of October, influenced by high bases and subsidy reductions [4][21] - Home appliance sales and production growth rates continued to decline, with offline sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines dropping significantly [5][22][23] Group 4 - Port container throughput growth remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% from September 29 to October 26 [5][24] - The overall economic resilience is observed in the export sector, while industrial operating rates show little change, and durable consumer goods sales have entered a high base period [5][28]