克而瑞地产研究·2025-11-01 03:19Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a downturn, with a significant decline in land acquisition activities among major companies, reflecting a cautious investment attitude due to reduced land supply and market pressures [15][16][30]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Trends - In October, over half of the 30 monitored companies did not engage in land acquisition, with only four companies acquiring land worth over 5 billion yuan [16]. - The total land acquisition value for the top 100 real estate companies reached 19,443 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27% [24]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in October was 2.7%, marking the lowest level of the year [18]. Group 2: Market Performance Metrics - The total area of land sold through public bidding in China was 60.57 million square meters, a 13% decrease month-on-month and a 25% decrease year-on-year [18]. - The total transaction amount for land was 151.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% month-on-month decline and a 35% year-on-year decrease [18]. - The threshold for the top 100 companies in terms of new land value decreased by 5% year-on-year to 4.28 billion yuan [21]. Group 3: Investment Behavior - The investment amount of the top 100 companies increased by 45% year-on-year, indicating a rebound in land acquisition despite the overall market decline [23][24]. - The land acquisition ratio for the top 100 companies was 0.29, with the top 10 companies showing a higher ratio of 0.42, indicating more aggressive investment strategies [26]. - Companies are focusing on acquiring quality land in core first- and second-tier cities, maintaining a rational approach to avoid overpaying [30][33]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see continued cautious and rational land acquisition strategies, with over 40% of the top sales companies likely to maintain zero new land reserves [33]. - Central government policies are anticipated to optimize land supply, focusing on improving housing quality and urban renewal projects [33].