暴跌92%，白酒三季报的第一颗“雷”炸了

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the performance of Kuozi Jiao, highlighting a 46.23% drop in quarterly revenue and a 92.55% decrease in net profit, indicating a troubling trend for the company and the broader challenges facing the liquor industry in China [4][9][11]. Financial Performance - Kuozi Jiao's Q3 2025 report shows a total revenue of 6.43 billion yuan, down 46.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 269.65 million yuan, down 92.55% [11]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 31.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.24%, and a net profit of 7.42 billion yuan, down 43.39% [9][11]. - The sales of high-end liquor fell by 28%, while mid-range liquor dropped by 15%, although low-end liquor saw a 25% increase, which contributed minimally to overall profits due to its low revenue share [9][12]. Market Dynamics - The overall liquor market in China is under pressure, particularly affecting mid to high-end products that rely on business banquets and gift-giving, leading to a contraction in consumption scenarios [12][23]. - Despite an increase in the number of distributors, the revenue from both provincial and out-of-province markets declined, indicating that the expansion did not translate into actual sales growth [12][11]. Competitive Landscape - Kuozi Jiao has fallen from being the second-largest liquor brand in Anhui to third, overtaken by Yingjia Gongjiu, which has seen significant growth [14][15]. - The company initially aimed for a "100 billion" revenue target but has struggled to penetrate the mid to high-end market effectively, missing out on opportunities as competitors have solidified their positions [14][15]. Management Actions - The founder, Liu Ansheng, has been reducing his stake in the company since 2018, cashing out over 1 billion yuan, which raises concerns about the management's confidence in the company's future [16][19]. - High-level executives have also engaged in significant stock pledges, indicating potential financial strain within the management team [19][20]. Industry Context - The broader liquor sector has faced challenges, with major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye also reporting stagnant growth, reflecting a general downturn in the industry [23][24]. - In contrast to Kuozi Jiao, other companies have initiated buyback and stabilization measures to support their stock prices, highlighting a lack of similar proactive strategies from Kuozi Jiao [24].