12月降息悬了？美联储内部现六年来罕见分歧，“老债王”格罗斯出手做空美债！

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate decision saw two dissenting votes among the 12 committee members, marking a rare occurrence of opposing views, with one member advocating for a 50 basis point cut and another for maintaining the current rate [1][6] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path has led to increased market volatility, with notable figures like Bill Gross beginning to short U.S. Treasury bonds [4][9] - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased significantly from 91.7% to 63% according to the CME FedWatch Tool, indicating a shift in market expectations [2][5] Group 2 - Bill Gross, co-founder of PIMCO, has expressed a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries, citing concerns over rising deficits and a weakening dollar as key factors influencing his decision to sell 10-year Treasury futures [3][11] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are becoming a focal point for market participants, with various officials presenting differing views on the necessity of rate cuts [6][8] - Analysts suggest that in the current environment, investors may need to adjust their strategies towards longer-term bonds, which are less sensitive to short-term policy fluctuations [11]