短期调整中适度加仓

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a moderate increase in positions during the current short-term adjustment phase, with a focus on balancing investments across different market segments [1]. Market Performance - The market showed a mixed performance last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.11%, and the CSI 500 index rising by 1.00% [3]. - The technology sector remained strong in the first half of the week but faced adjustments in the latter half, influenced by overseas market sentiments [3]. Economic Indicators - Recent official PMI data fell below market expectations, indicating that the Chinese economy has not entered a new growth phase [3]. - The macroeconomic data released in mid-October showed signs of a single-month economic rebound, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [3]. - The third-quarter earnings reports revealed a divergence in performance: the real economy showed near 0% growth, while market investment-related sectors benefited from a strong Q3, leading to significant earnings increases [3]. Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence between technology and consumer sectors, with technology maintaining double-digit growth while consumer sectors experienced double-digit declines, a rare occurrence in A-share history [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October was in line with market expectations, although uncertainties regarding future rate cuts remain [3]. Technical Analysis - The market is witnessing a return of incremental capital, with both institutional and retail investors showing marginally positive participation, suggesting a potential challenge to new highs after a two-month consolidation [4]. - The recommendation for the main board is to moderately increase positions to a medium level, as the third-quarter results align with previous macroeconomic forecasts [4]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, the suggestion is also to moderately increase positions to a medium level, with a shift towards a balanced market style [4]. - The short-term momentum model indicates a focus on the home appliance industry [4].