高工锂电·2025-11-02 02:07Core Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged past 110,000 RMB per ton, with a market average stabilizing at 100,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a more than 22% increase over the past week [2][3] - This price increase is driven more by rising processing fees rather than raw material costs, which is expected to significantly enhance the profitability of leading lithium hexafluorophosphate producers [5] Supply Constraints - The core logic behind the price surge is the severe rigidity on the supply side, with long expansion cycles for lithium hexafluorophosphate production [6] - New production lines require 10 months to start operations after construction, and 18 to 24 months if starting from scratch, with strict regulatory approvals adding to the timeline [6][7] - Capital investment is substantial, with second and third-tier companies needing over 400 million RMB for new projects, leading to cautious expansion strategies [7][8] Producer Feedback - Major manufacturers confirm that the current price increase is not driven by upstream costs, as there is an oversupply of phosphorus pentachloride and stable prices for hydrofluoric acid [9][10] - The only variable is lithium fluoride, which follows the price trends of lithium carbonate but has not seen the same level of increase as lithium hexafluorophosphate [10] Strategic Responses from Leading Companies - Leading companies are exhibiting high strategic discipline in response to market tightness, with Multi-Fluorite attributing the price increase to surging demand from the new energy and energy storage sectors [12][13] - Tianji Co. reports low inventory levels and expects a "not-so-dull" market in Q1 2026 due to low stock allowing for replenishment during the off-season [14] - Tianji anticipates that if global battery cell demand reaches 2.5 TWh in 2026, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate will exceed 300,000 tons, while nominal supply capacity is around 380,000 tons [14] Market Dynamics and New Demands - The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate has not fully transmitted to downstream electrolyte products, with some customers still adhering to long-term contracts [20] - The demand for other materials in electrolytes is changing, with an increase in the proportion of LiFSI due to rising demand for fast charging and energy storage [21] - The focus of market discussions has expanded from lithium batteries to the entire fluorochemical industry chain, driven by new demands from AI data centers and semiconductor manufacturing [21][22]