美股IPO·2025-11-02 06:28Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is creating a "data fog" for the Federal Reserve, making its December interest rate decision uncertain. The longer the shutdown lasts, the less likely a rate cut will occur, according to Morgan Stanley, while Citigroup remains optimistic about a resolution within two weeks, allowing for potential rate cuts [1][4][12]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The duration of the government shutdown directly affects the availability of key economic data, which the Federal Reserve relies on for decision-making. A longer shutdown leads to a higher probability of pausing rate cuts [4][9]. - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that the lack of data will lead to more cautious actions, comparing the situation to "driving in fog" [3][5]. Group 2: Market Perspectives - Morgan Stanley believes that the longer the shutdown continues, the lower the chances of a rate cut, emphasizing the importance of timely data for the Fed's decisions [4][11]. - In contrast, Citigroup expresses confidence that the government will reopen within two weeks, which would provide the Fed with sufficient data to support a rate cut in December [12][16]. Group 3: Scenarios Based on Shutdown Duration - Scenario 1: If the shutdown ends next week, the Fed could receive multiple employment reports and key inflation data, supporting a rate cut decision [11]. - Scenario 2: If the shutdown ends by mid-November, the Fed may only have limited data, but state-level unemployment data could still provide some insights [11]. - Scenario 3: If the shutdown extends past Thanksgiving, the Fed may only have access to September's data, increasing the likelihood of pausing rate cuts unless strong negative signals emerge [11]. Group 4: Immediate Economic Pressures - The shutdown has already impacted social welfare programs, with the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits ceasing on November 1, affecting up to 42 million Americans [13]. - There is an impending crisis regarding military pay, as funds for military salaries are running low [14]. - Upcoming local elections may create new political momentum to resolve the shutdown [15].