【广发宏观团队】全球资产主流叙事：一致预期松动但尚未逆转

Global Asset Narrative - The core narrative of global assets is showing signs of loosening expectations but has not yet reversed. Key narratives include the weakening of dollar credit, gold transitioning from a safe-haven asset to a new monetary anchor, the reshaping of global supply chains, AI as the foundation of a new technological revolution, and non-ferrous metals being likened to the oil of this new revolution [1][2]. Recent Market Developments - Since October, the pricing environment for assets has shown signs of loosening consensus expectations, particularly with a rebound in the dollar, which rose from a low of 96.6 on September 16 to 99.7 by October 31. This shift has led to discussions around new economic logics such as increased labor productivity and rising real interest rates [2]. - Gold prices have experienced significant adjustments, peaking at $4,357 per ounce on October 20 before falling to $3,997 by October 31, influenced by geopolitical factors and easing global trade tensions [2]. - Recent economic discussions between China and the U.S. have yielded new outcomes, with tariffs being canceled or suspended, indicating a reduction in the risks of further disruptions in global supply chains [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - Meta's increased capital expenditures have led to a significant stock price adjustment, indicating a potential break in the positive cycle of AI infrastructure investment and market valuation [3]. - There is a general consensus on the increased demand for non-ferrous metals due to new industries, but there are differing views on the magnitude of this demand [3]. - The loosening of narratives is expected to impact asset prices, leading to increased volatility in financial market expectations, although the foundational narratives remain intact [3]. Global Market Performance - Global stock markets have shown divergence, with U.S. stocks beginning to exhibit signs of concern. The MSCI developed and emerging markets saw narrower gains of 0.61% and 0.92%, respectively [4][5]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.71% and 2.24%, respectively, despite concerns over Meta's aggressive capital spending plans leading to an 11% drop in its stock price on October 30 [5]. - In the commodities market, precious metals have moved away from a one-sided trend, with gold prices continuing to decline while silver prices increased by 2.0% [6]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's economic performance in Q3 exceeded market expectations, with GDP growth of 0.2%, driven by stable investment and public spending despite weak private consumption [18][19]. - The ECB maintained interest rates at 2% during its October meeting, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [19]. - In China, the stock and bond markets have shown signs of a "see-saw" effect, with the A-share market experiencing a slight increase of 0.41% [11]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Chinese government has announced plans to enhance digital transformation in urban areas, aiming to establish over 50 fully digitalized cities by 2027 [27][28]. - Recent policy measures aim to improve the financing environment for enterprises, with the BCI index rising from 47.6 to 52.4, indicating a more favorable outlook for corporate financing [24].