美联储降息周期下的资产图谱

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with a maximum increase of 16% over 11 trading days starting from October 15, 2025, despite previous oversupply conditions [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate is driven by explosive growth in energy storage systems, with global energy storage cell shipments expected to reach 600 GWh in 2025, a 62.1% year-on-year increase [2] - The demand for lithium carbonate from energy storage batteries is projected to rise from 36.7 million tons in 2025 to 53.4 million tons in 2026, reflecting an upward adjustment of 8.4% and 19.1% respectively [3] Group 2: Battery Demand and Supply Outlook - The demand for power batteries is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with projections of 25.2% and 20.5% year-on-year growth for 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] - The global demand for lithium carbonate is anticipated to shift from oversupply to a tight balance by 2026, with total demand expected to reach 196.3 million tons, a 29.8% increase year-on-year [3] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to grow at a rate of 20%, indicating a potential tightening of the market [3] Group 3: Cotton Market Insights - In the 2025/26 season, seed cotton purchase prices in Northern Xinjiang are stable at 5.5-6.2 yuan per kilogram, while Southern Xinjiang prices are higher at 6.1-6.5 yuan per kilogram [5] - The total cotton production in China is projected to be between 7.1 million and 7.3 million tons, reflecting an increase compared to previous years [7] - The cotton market is expected to experience slight price declines after mid-November as resources from Xinjiang become available [7] Group 4: Coking Coal Price Trends - Coking coal prices are under pressure due to operational challenges in coal mining, with a significant drop in revenue and profit margins reported [8] - Safety regulations are tightening, leading to production constraints, particularly in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally a high-risk period for coal mining [9] - The inventory levels of coking coal are at historical lows, with a significant reduction compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [11] Group 5: Gold Price Movements - Recent declines in gold prices are attributed to a combination of factors including easing geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and technical corrections following rapid price increases [19][20] - Historical analysis shows that the recent drop in gold prices ranks among the largest since 2000, primarily driven by shifts in market sentiment and profit-taking [20] - The outlook for gold remains cautious, with potential for further declines if macroeconomic conditions do not improve [22]