国泰海通|食饮:供需出清迎拐点——2026年度策略
国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-02 14:43

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes growth as a priority, with supply and demand clearing leading to a turning point in the market. The liquor industry is accelerating its clearance, while consumer goods show strong resilience [1] - The liquor market is experiencing a significant clearance, with sales bottoming out and inventory levels decreasing rapidly. The current adjustment cycle is longer compared to previous cycles, indicating a U-shaped recovery rather than a V-shaped one [1] - Beer and beverage sectors are stable, with beer clearance occurring before liquor. The beverage industry shows strong resilience, particularly among leading brands driven by major products [1] Group 2 - The consumer goods sector is stabilizing, with some industries like food ingredients and health products still in a growth phase. There is significant differentiation within the sector, with seasoning products performing relatively well [2] - The snack food sector is experiencing a marginal decline in prosperity, highlighting the importance of product innovation and strong channel expansion capabilities for future growth [2]