SCSF(SH:600779) 阿尔法工场研究院·2025-11-03 00:05Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant challenges faced by Shui Jing Fang, including declining cash flow, sales pressure, and frequent changes in foreign shareholders, questioning the brand's trust and market position in the Chinese liquor industry [2][12]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shui Jing Fang reported revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and a net profit of 326 million yuan, down 71.02% [2]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue drop to 850 million yuan, a decline of 58.91%, with net profit falling to 221 million yuan, down 75.01% [2]. - The company experienced a quarterly loss of 85 million yuan in Q2 2025, marking its first quarterly loss in three years [2]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is closely linked to channel adjustments, with the company implementing a full-channel suspension of its core product "Zhen Niang Ba Hao," leading to a sharp reduction in shipment volumes [5]. - Wholesale and agency revenue fell by 50.5% to 1.647 billion yuan, while new channels (including e-commerce) saw a 71.2% increase in revenue to 562 million yuan, accounting for 25% of total revenue [6]. Product Strategy - Despite rapid growth in new channels, issues such as low-price chaos in e-commerce and a wave of distributor exits persist, indicating ongoing challenges in maintaining price stability [6]. - The company continues its "de-low-end" strategy, focusing on high-margin core series, but revenue and gross margins for high-end products are still declining [6][7]. - High-end liquor revenue dropped by approximately 40% year-on-year, while mid-range liquor revenue fell by 33.12% [6]. Cost and Cash Flow - The sales expense ratio increased from 19.93% to 31.23%, indicating high spending on brand maintenance and channel incentives [9]. - By the end of Q3, the operating cash flow net amount was -867 million yuan, marking a recent low, with accounts receivable increasing by 37.96% [9][11]. - Operating cash flow fell from 1.734 billion yuan to 744 million yuan from 2023 to 2024, a decline of over 50% [11]. Management Changes - Shui Jing Fang is under foreign control by Diageo, which holds over 60% of the shares, but the expected synergies have not materialized [12][13]. - Recent management changes include the sudden departure of Diageo's global CEO and significant shifts in Shui Jing Fang's leadership, raising concerns about strategic consistency [13][14]. Future Outlook - The company is attempting to reshape its growth logic by focusing on the next high-end and low-alcohol markets, launching innovative products priced between 400-600 yuan [21]. - The overall liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment, with a reported decrease of 100 large-scale liquor enterprises and an 11% drop in profits in the first half of 2025 [22]. - The potential success of Shui Jing Fang's focus on next high-end and low-alcohol products remains uncertain, as competition in these segments is intense [23].