汽车商业评论·2025-11-02 23:06Core Viewpoint - Japanese automotive manufacturers are facing significant financial challenges, with Nissan predicting an operating loss of 275 billion yen (approximately 1.8 billion USD) for the fiscal year ending March 2026, marking its most severe financial crisis in over two decades [4][6]. Group 1: Nissan's Financial Outlook - Nissan has lowered its consolidated sales forecast for fiscal 2025 from 12.5 trillion yen to 11.7 trillion yen, leading to a 6.1% drop in its stock price on October 31, the largest single-day decline in nearly two months [5]. - The company is experiencing a crisis comparable to its near-bankruptcy situation in the past, exacerbated by ongoing leadership turmoil and declining profits [6]. Group 2: Toyota and Honda's Challenges - Toyota sold 5,267,216 vehicles in the past six months, achieving the highest sales record in two years, yet it faces a projected net profit decline of 44.2% to 2.66 trillion yen (approximately 170 million USD) for the current fiscal year [8][10]. - Honda's global sales fell nearly 6% in September, with a 13% decline in the Chinese market, and it anticipates a 70% drop in profits for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [11][23]. Group 3: External Pressures - The automotive industry is under pressure from tariffs, a strong yen, and supply chain disruptions, which are collectively squeezing profit margins [13]. - The U.S. tariffs on non-American manufactured vehicles and parts, initially set at 25%, have been reduced to 15%, but still pose a significant burden on Japanese manufacturers [17][20]. Group 4: Currency Impact - The appreciation of the yen is expected to reduce the annual profits of Japan's seven major automakers by approximately 1.5 trillion yen, with Toyota facing a potential loss of 745 billion yen due to currency fluctuations [30][31]. - The yen's strengthening has reversed the benefits previously gained from its depreciation, leading to a projected 31% decline in Toyota's operating profit [32]. Group 5: Supply Chain Issues - A semiconductor supply shortage, particularly related to Nexperia, is threatening production across the industry, with Nissan indicating that its chip inventory may only last until early November [36][38]. - Additionally, the reliance on rare earth materials from China has decreased significantly, impacting the production of electric vehicles [43][44]. Group 6: Strategic Responses - Japanese automakers are focusing on deepening their presence in the U.S. market and localizing supply chains to mitigate risks from tariffs and currency fluctuations [47]. - Nissan is increasing production capacity in its U.S. factories and exploring partnerships with Honda to utilize idle capacity for producing pickup trucks [48][51]. Group 7: Cost Optimization and Product Strategy - Nissan is aggressively restructuring, planning to cut 20,000 jobs and reduce its global manufacturing sites from 17 to 10 [54][56]. - Both Nissan and Honda are shifting focus towards hybrid vehicles, with Toyota reporting that hybrid models accounted for 42% of its U.S. sales in the first half of the year [61].