储能市场

Background and Policy Changes - The initial market skepticism regarding energy storage demand was influenced by policies such as Document No. 136, which mentioned "no mandatory renewable energy storage." However, actual domestic energy storage configurations are primarily driven by an indicator scoring mechanism rather than being entirely mandatory [5]. - Under market-oriented trading, the real demand for energy storage from solar and wind power continues to increase. Following policy adjustments, energy storage demand has consistently exceeded expectations, leading some companies to announce price increases for storage batteries in Q3, confirming industry prosperity [5]. - The rapid construction of AI data centers, especially in the U.S., has resulted in a surge in grid load, while grid upgrades are slow due to lengthy approval processes and tight equipment capacity. Traditional power sources like gas turbines and nuclear power have long construction cycles of 3-4 years, which cannot match the 1-2 year construction speed of data centers [5]. - China mandates that new data centers must have over 80% of their electricity from renewable sources, while Canada limits AI load to a maximum of 400 megawatts, pushing for wind-solar-storage solutions. NVIDIA's white paper lists energy storage as a standard configuration for data centers, further reinforcing expectations [5]. Data Center Energy Storage Demand - Energy storage advantages include clean energy, quick deployment, low costs, participation in grid frequency regulation/arbitrage, peak load smoothing, and enhanced power supply reliability [5]. - Conservative estimate (10% off-grid penetration): 24 GWh of energy storage demand by 2026. - Neutral estimate (30% penetration): nearly 100 GWh. - Optimistic estimate (70% penetration): over 200 GWh. - Even under conservative estimates, annual energy storage installations in the U.S. (currently about 50 GWh) are expected to increase significantly [5]. - U.S. solar-storage projects typically include 4 hours of storage to balance grid support and redundancy needs. Abu Dhabi's solar-storage data center includes 6 hours of storage, while Google's Belgium project includes 2 hours, and Microsoft's European project includes 80 minutes [5]. Demand Projections - Demand estimates based on a 6-hour storage configuration: - China: 150 GWh by 2025, 250 GWh by 2026 (67% growth), benefiting from data center and wind-solar storage demand. - U.S.: 52 GWh by 2025 (+40%), 82 GWh by 2026 (+58%), with data centers contributing approximately 20 GWh of elasticity. - Europe: 51 GWh by 2026 (+55%), primarily driven by large-scale storage. - Global: 445 GWh of installed capacity by 2026 (+65% year-on-year) [5].