银行投资的周期及边际变化

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between banking metrics such as asset yield, liability cost, growth rate, asset quality, and valuation changes with the economic development cycle, predicting an L-shaped economic growth trend in the future [2]. Banking Metrics - The overall loan interest rates are stabilizing, with potential for slight decreases, but retail and competitive corporate loan demand remains weak, leading to significant competitive pressure [2]. - The current high reserve requirement ratio allows for substantial room for reduction, which could improve deposit supply-demand relationships and lower banks' funding costs [2]. Interest Rate Dynamics - Deposit rates have considerable room to decline compared to loan rates, with the repricing of loans occurring within a year while deposits take about two years [3]. - Banks with a higher proportion of demand deposits previously enjoyed a significant advantage, but this advantage is now priced in, and banks with more time deposits may have a marginal optimization advantage in future rate cuts [3]. Loan Demand and Quality - Retail loans and competitive corporate loans are under pressure in terms of volume, price, and asset quality, while government-backed projects remain relatively stable [3]. - Regional banks with monopolistic advantages have maintained high loan growth rates during previous rate cuts, but this growth has been offset by reduced interest margins [3]. Economic Cycles and Bank Risks - In periods of economic overheating, competition among businesses can lead to instability, increasing the risk of non-performing loans for banks [4]. - Conversely, during economic downturns, competition stabilizes, making bank loans relatively safer even if businesses incur losses [4]. Investment Risks - Traditional industries may not pose significant risks to banks due to shareholder equity acting as a buffer, while technology companies present a mismatch between risk and return for banks [5]. - The average return on capital is decreasing due to limited profits relative to growing capital, leading to higher asset valuations without a corresponding increase in profitability [6]. Bond Investments - Banks' profits and assets are significantly influenced by bond market fluctuations, especially during a rate-cutting cycle where loan yields and net interest margins decline [7]. - The appreciation of bonds during a rate-cutting cycle has historically provided substantial returns, but as this appreciation diminishes, banks may face reduced profits and growth rates [8]. Future Outlook - Banks with high bond investment ratios may face comparative disadvantages as the benefits of holding long-duration bonds diminish [9]. - The recognition of bond investment gains in current profits versus future interest income can vary significantly among banks, affecting their operational strategies [10].