行业透视 | 代建渗透率再创新高，二线仍是“主战场”

Core Viewpoint - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects in the commodity housing sector continues to rise, reaching 7.23% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024. However, the development trends vary across different city tiers, with only second-tier cities showing an upward trend while first-tier and third- and fourth-tier cities experience a decline [2][3][4]. Group 1: Overall Market Trends - The penetration rate of entrusted construction projects has reached a new high of 7.23%, surpassing the 2024 level. The quarterly breakdown shows a first-quarter rate of 5%, a second-quarter surge to 8.7%, and a third-quarter rate of 7.12% [4][6]. - The distribution of new entrusted construction projects in 2025 indicates that second-tier cities dominate, accounting for 84% of the projects, while only 1% are located in first-tier cities [6][12]. Group 2: First-Tier Cities - Among first-tier cities, Guangzhou leads with the highest number of opened entrusted construction projects, totaling 9, followed by Shanghai with 5, and Shenzhen and Beijing with 3 and 2, respectively [8][10]. - The majority of entrusted construction projects in first-tier cities are located in non-core areas, with Guangzhou's projects primarily in districts like Nansha and Zengcheng [10][11]. Group 3: Second-Tier Cities - The penetration rate in second-tier cities has reached 9.89%, an increase of nearly 2 percentage points compared to 2024, making it the only tier to see significant growth in 2025 [12][13]. - Cities like Suzhou and Tianjin have penetration rates exceeding 30%, with Suzhou at 38.5%, indicating a strong focus on second-tier cities by construction enterprises [14][16]. Group 4: Third- and Fourth-Tier Cities - The penetration rate in third- and fourth-tier cities has slightly decreased to 6.15%, down 1.67 percentage points from 2024, largely influenced by individual city performance [18][19]. - Despite the current decline, there are long-term opportunities in third- and fourth-tier cities, particularly in regions like the Pearl River Delta [21][24].