全球宏观经济中期展望：关键节点与投资信号

Core Insights - The global economy is facing increasing risks due to economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical fluctuations, and rapid advancements in artificial intelligence [2][3][6] - Despite these challenges, there is a slight recovery in global output growth forecasts, driven by AI investments and strong performances in certain economies [3][7] Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to average 2.7% from 2025 to 2027, with Asia and Oceania expected to surpass the Middle East and Africa as the fastest-growing regions [6][10] - India and China are anticipated to drive growth in Asia, with average growth rates of 3.7% for the region, while the Middle East and Africa's growth forecast has been downgraded to 3.5% due to rising geopolitical risks [10][11] Trade and Policy Impacts - Global trade growth is expected to slow down, with a projected contraction of about 3% from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026 due to the diminishing effects of pre-emptive ordering before tariff implementations [26] - Industries heavily reliant on cross-border component imports, such as automotive and aerospace, will face significant challenges due to supply chain fragmentation and rising input costs [26][27] Artificial Intelligence Influence - AI investments are projected to reach $375 billion by 2025, potentially offsetting some economic downturn pressures [7][29] - The productivity gains from AI are expected to vary significantly across regions, with developed economies likely to see greater benefits compared to lower-income countries [30][33] Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies must adopt bold strategies to navigate the current economic landscape, focusing on resilience and adaptability rather than merely efficiency [4][35] - Industries such as automotive and consumer goods should reconfigure supply chains and incorporate political risk management into their core strategies to maintain profitability [35][36]