2025年 汽车与交通出行行业进入"节奏分化、结构重塑"的关键阶段。电动化长期方向未变，但短期 需求波动、成本压力与资本约束显著放大；新技术不断涌现，却更频繁地暴露出规模化落地 与系统协同的挑战。 从锂电产业链的修复与再平衡，到动力电池制造的盈利拷问；从先进空中交通的远期潜力， 到 Robotaxi 带来的城市拥堵新风险，行业竞争焦点正从"技术是否可行"，转向"商业是否可持 续、系统是否可控"。效率、韧性与协同能力，正在决定下一阶段的胜负。 世界经济论坛 | 负责任的先进空中交通（AAM）离我们还有多远？ 动力电池制造商如何应对成本压力 自动驾驶出租车并非天然"治堵良药"，无序部署反而可能放大城市拥堵风险。其规模化落地需依赖公共 部门、运营商与城市规划的协同治理。 锂电再平衡 锂电行业价格战阶段性缓解，但结构性失衡仍在。企业需通过材料创新、极限制造、精益运营及海外与 多场景布局，在"增量放缓"背景下筑牢长期竞争力。 空中出行破冰 科尔尼锂电行业洞察：价格战缓解，增量与增效仍是长期课题 先进空中交通（AAM）仍处早期，但在客运、货运与专业服务领域已显现增长动能。无人机率先进入规 模化阶段，其发展路径为其他 AA ...

2025 年，消费品行业从高增长回落至结构分化阶段。奢侈品、美妆与食品饮料不再具备天然抗 周期属性，消费者对"价值、健康与透明度"的要求显著提升。 在增速放缓、成本与可持续压力叠加的背景下，企业竞争焦点正从规模扩张转向护城河重构，决 定胜负的关键在于产品组合、运营效率与技术赋能能力。 奢侈品进入 1%–3% 低增长区间，关键市场逆风与提价触顶叠加，消费者更看重价值与透明度；品牌需强化独 特性、升级体验并精简运营以穿越周期。 从2025年纽约消费者分析师峰会(CAGNY)看全球消费趋势 全球消费品巨头将高端化、健康创新、AI 提效与全球拓展作为主线，以 RGM+成本管控+并购把握不确定性中 的股东价值兑现。 行业遇冷，奢侈品牌生存与突破之道——科尔尼2025奢侈品行业展望发布 食品饮料行业在需求多元化与格局重塑中寻找创新路径；行业共识转向"高质量增长"，强调产业协同、创新与 结构升级。 印度在财富增长与开放环境下成为奢侈品重要增量市场；品牌需把握本地文化与消费升级节奏，构建可复制的 增长模型。 科尔尼全球合伙人刘晓龙出席2025全国糖酒会主论坛，暨《全球食品饮料行业趋势洞察报告》首发 印度：下一个奢侈品热土？ ...

行业关注点正在发生结构性转移：从"能不能做"转向"能否规模化落地"，从单点技术领先转向系 统能力构建。效率提升、基础设施选择、安全与商业回报，正在共同决定下一阶段的技术竞争格 局。 人工智能正推动 IT 职能从"维持运转"转向"效率与创新引擎"。KTLO 占比下降、Agentic Workflows 与 GenAI 加速渗透，标志着 IT 从成本中心向规模化价值交付平台转型。 生成式 AI 开始深入企业 IT 与运营核心，算力与硬件垄断出现松动迹象，量子科技从远期概念进 入国家级战略布局，而 5G 商业化也正式进入以变现能力为导向的"影响期"。 01 AI 驱动 IT 2025年 04 5G 价值兑现 5G 商业化进入"影响期"，行业焦点从网络覆盖转向变现能力。专网、MEC 与 API 等应用开始 释放回报，运营商竞争核心转为"用得好"而非"建得快"。 02 量子战略启航 人工智能：开启企业 IT 效率与创新的新篇章 为什么这项突破性技术使2025年成为"国际量子科学与技术年" 量子科技被正式纳入国家未来产业核心布局，后量子加密、量子计算与量子通信成为长期竞争 力关键。尽管通用量子计算尚未成熟，但安全与特定场 ...

生鲜零售虽保持高增长，但行业普遍亏损，价格战难以为继。企业需从规模扩张转向供应链效 率、品类结构与运营能力驱动的价值竞争。 02 高效零售崛起 2025 年，零售行业进入从"流量与价格竞争"向"价值创造与效率兑现"转型的关键阶段。消费趋于 理性，价格战边际效应减弱，企业增长更多依赖于业态选择、体验重构与用户关系深化。 从生鲜、会员店与实体零售的效率重塑，到体育、旅游与旅游零售等场景型消费的结构性变化， 再到会员体系从被动管理走向主动经营，零售的核心竞争力正从"卖什么、卖多便宜"，转向"如 何持续创造值得被选择的消费价值"。 01 生鲜价值转型 体育产业从情怀驱动走向价值管理，赛事 IP、转播与博彩构成核心价值池，商业成功取决于对 增长杠杆与运营效率的系统化布局。 04 实体体验回潮 实体零售如何实现破局增长？—— 服饰与美妆行业的启示 实体零售并未消亡，而是通过"小而美"门店、模块化设计与沉浸式体验重塑增长逻辑，服饰与 美妆成为门店升级的先行者。 【深度】从赛事到商机——科尔尼诠释体育产业价值路径 解码会员店，拉开高效零售序幕 05 消费情绪钝化 从"价格战"到"价值战"，生鲜企业开启增长新纪元 理性消费回归 ...

2 0 2 5 地缘政治、关税调整与技术变革交织，全球经济不确定性显著上升。大宗价格波动、投资信 心变化与区域竞争格局重塑，正在重排未来五年的增长与资本流向。 在这一背景下，企业与城市的竞争力愈发取决于对结构性趋势的洞察，以及在波动环境中保 持韧性与果断决策的能力。 1 全球五大变数 未来五年，地缘政治、科技突破与制度演进等关键变量将深刻重塑全球运行逻辑，企业 需提前识别长期趋势，而非被短期波动牵引。 2 大宗价格博弈 关税政策调整正在改变外商直接投资预期，亚洲经济体面临资本重新配置与产业布局再 选择的关键考验。 4 城市创新跃迁 灵蛇探机：把握大宗市场价格脉动，蛇年新策略迎接新开局 中国城市创新动能强劲，潜力排名跃升——科尔尼发布2025年全球城市指数报告 科尔尼：未来五年全球五大变数 大宗商品价格高度分化与剧烈波动成为常态，企业需以数据驱动的采购与定价体系，提 升应对周期与结构性变化的能力。 3 投资信心重塑 科尔尼2025外商直接投资信心指数®报告暨最新关税政策对亚洲各国的潜在影响 全球经济修复与下行风险并存，区域增长出现分化，亚洲成为主要增长引擎，但贸易放 缓与碎片化压力持续存在。 6 CEO 战略转 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the manufacturing and energy-chemical industries will enter a rebalancing phase under multiple structural pressures, with geopolitical changes and trade rules reshaping global layouts. The focus will shift from "betting on growth" to "realizing value" as companies seek sustainable returns through asset optimization, capability restructuring, and operational upgrades [1]. Group 1: Manufacturing "15th Five-Year" Layout - The "15th Five-Year" plan (2026-2030) is a critical period for China's modernization by 2035, emphasizing the need for manufacturing enterprises to anticipate socio-economic and technological trends, plan high-quality development paths, and enhance international competitiveness amid geopolitical tensions [4]. Group 2: Asset Operation Restructuring - Energy and chemical companies must optimize asset layouts through normative analysis to enhance long-term decision-making certainty and return rates, particularly in the context of geopolitical and demand structure changes [7]. Group 3: Digital Transformation - Oil and gas companies face limitations in AI potential due to data quality and system fragmentation. Establishing a high-quality data foundation and governance mechanisms is essential to unlock the value of AI and digitalization in supply chain and operational transformations [9]. Group 4: Chemical M&A Recovery - The chemical industry is witnessing a gradual recovery in M&A activities, driven by overcapacity, weak demand, and tariff uncertainties. Companies and private equity are seeking growth paths through portfolio restructuring and regional diversification [11]. Group 5: Accelerated Power M&A - The demand for large data centers is driving a new wave of M&A in the U.S. power sector, compelling power companies to enhance scale, delivery capabilities, and clean energy supply to compete for core customers [13]. Group 6: Electrification Investment Decisions - The electrification trend brings substantial capital investments, but profitability is not guaranteed. Investment returns depend on asset utilization rates, contract structures, and service models, necessitating a careful balance between infrastructure and digital platforms [15]. Group 7: Renewable Value Realignment - The renewable energy sector is transitioning from a narrative of rapid growth to one focused on capability and return realization. Factors such as subsidy reductions, grid constraints, and rising capital costs are pushing companies to reshape their competitive edge through market-oriented capabilities [17]. Group 8: CCUS Commercial Breakthrough - Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is emerging as a viable decarbonization pathway in high-emission industries, but its adoption is constrained by economic viability and carbon pricing mechanisms. Innovative business models and policy collaboration are crucial for large-scale implementation [19]. Group 9: Industrial Aftermarket Opportunities - The industrial aftermarket is becoming a significant profit engine for OEMs, with growth rates of 7.8% in China and 6.5% globally. Companies can achieve steady and high-quality growth through network expansion, complexity management, and pricing capability upgrades [21]. Group 10: CBAM Cost Restructuring - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is reshaping competitive rules in high-carbon industries like steel. Importers need to proactively manage emissions accounting, supply chain adjustments, and cost transfer mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of visible carbon costs [23]. Group 11: Infrastructure Innovation - Modern construction methods (MMC) are significantly enhancing efficiency, sustainability, and resilience in the global construction industry. Despite higher initial investments, the long-term value of MMC is becoming evident in global capital projects [25].

2025 年，企业运营进入系统性重构期。地缘政治与关税博弈加剧，供应链区域化与全球化并 行，制造与采购模式面临再平衡。同时，生成式 AI 加速渗透运营核心流程，ESG 与组织能力短 板进一步放大执行压力。 在高度不确定的环境下，运营不再只是降本工具，而成为连接战略与执行的关键中枢。COO、供 应链与采购体系正从效率优先，转向以韧性、灵活性与长期竞争力为核心的运营新范式。 新一轮关税博弈加剧全球不确定性，企业被迫在成本、韧性与地缘风险之间重新平衡，供应链 布局加速走向区域化与多元化。 在全球产业链重构、科技革命与碳中和约束叠加的背景下，集团企业进入战略复杂性显著上升 的关键周期。本白皮书提出"八大战役"框架，帮助集团在新旧动能切换、风险防控与长期增长 培育之间实现系统性破局。 02 COO 角色升级 01 "十五五"战略攻坚 集团企业"十五五"战略规划：把握未来的八大关键战役 在不确定性加剧的环境下，COO 从"救火者"转向"战略领航者"。GenAI 正在重塑运营流程，但 技能短缺、执行乏力与 ESG 推进滞后，成为运营升级的主要瓶颈。 03 关税重塑供应链 用博弈论视角看低价白牌困境——科尔尼发布生活用纸品类 ...

时代的全球医疗健康版图重构 2025年，医疗健康行业进入结构性重塑期。技术突破、支付改革与数字化浪潮叠加，推动行业从 规模扩张走向价值创造与精准医疗。 中国市场由医保改革与健康消费升级驱动增长；全球范围内，创新压力与资本约束并存，企业必 须以更清晰的战略聚焦应对不确定性。 GLP-1引发医疗需求结构重塑 生存之战：GLP-1药物将如何重塑医疗健康行业 GLP-1 药物的快速崛起正在重塑全球医疗健康行业。作为被视为"医 学奇迹"的新型治疗手段，GLP-1 显著降低多类慢性疾病的风险，却 同时引发医疗服务提供方的结构性焦虑：未来的临床服务需求将下 降，直接冲击行业盈利模式。 精准靶向治疗加速落地 蓄势待发，放射性药物产业迎来发展新纪元 3 放射性药物正成为继 ADC、GLP-1 之后的全新"黄金赛道"，在肿瘤等重 大疾病的精准诊疗中展现突破性潜力。中国市场虽仍处早期，但在巨大 患者需求推动下具备快速扩容空间。 消费者健康需求结构性升级 1 2 一文读懂2025年消费者健康新趋势 后新冠时代，健康焦虑持续存在，新技术与新产品推动消费者从被动 治疗转向主动、前置的健康管理。在中国市场，医保与支付体系改革 叠加消费升级 ...

未来十年全球资本项目预计将超过40万亿美元——其中房地产超过15万亿美元，其余25万亿美元分布于 交通、能源和通信领域——对高效、可扩展且可持续的 建筑解决方案的需求 比以往任何时候都更加迫 切。 迄今为止，承包商和开发商通常将MMC用于房地产项目，例如住宅和公寓、商业建筑、酒店和餐厅、 办公楼和混合用途建筑。例如在沙特阿拉伯，新的智能城市Neom正在采用MMC，包括自动化、预制和 场外制造，以提高效率并减少对传统劳动密集型建筑方法的依赖。Neom是这些创新的试验场，包括自 动化钢筋制造，这可以减少浪费并提高安全性。MMC带来多种益处，包括以下方面（图2）： 01 提升可持续性 建筑行业对环境影响重大，占全球碳排放量的40%，以及全球水资源消耗和废物产生的三分之一。然而 MMC具有显著的环境效益 ，包括减少浪费和使用某些环保建筑材料的能力。例如，场外施工允许使用 一些无法在建筑工地部署的材料，如工程木制品或再生复合材料，这些材料在生产过程中需要精密加工 和严格的环境控制，以及如果不小心处理就会降解或失效的环保材料，如地质聚合物混凝土或未经处理 的生物基材料。例如，Neom正在探索体积模块化建造方法的进步，部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the EU to address carbon leakage and its implications for steel importers, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in procurement and production methods to mitigate potential cost impacts [1][9]. Group 1: CBAM Implementation and Challenges - The CBAM was introduced to combat carbon leakage by imposing carbon pricing on imports linked to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) [1]. - The mechanism will be implemented in two phases: a transitional phase from October 2023 to December 2025, where reporting is required but no taxes are imposed, followed by a full implementation phase starting January 2026 [1]. - During the transitional phase, challenges have emerged, particularly for small importers, leading to the introduction of a minimum threshold of 50 tons to exempt approximately 90% of importers from detailed reporting requirements [1]. Group 2: EU Steel Import Dependency - The EU is the largest importer of semi-finished and finished steel, accounting for 35% of global steel imports, with dependency on imports rising from 17% in 2020 to an expected 21% in 2024 [4]. - Steel import volumes are projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 0.63% from 2026 to 2030 [4]. Group 3: Impact of CBAM on Steel Importers - CBAM is forcing EU steel importers to reassess their procurement strategies and the production technologies used by suppliers to manage cost impacts [6]. - The top ten countries supplying steel to the EU account for 69% of total imports, with China, Turkey, Russia, and India contributing over 60% [6]. - The two main production pathways for steel are the Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) and Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) methods, with EAF having significantly lower CO2 emissions [6]. Group 4: Expected Cost Implications of CBAM - Although the fixed carbon price for 2026 has not been announced, it is expected to be linked to the EU ETS carbon price, projected to rise to €85 per ton in 2026 and drop to €65 in 2027 due to potential oversupply [10]. - The implementation of CBAM could lead to an additional carbon tax of €2.21 billion to €2.7 billion for EU steel imports in 2026, with BF-BOF steel imports contributing the majority of this cost [12]. Group 5: Strategies for Mitigating Financial Impact - EU steel importers need to act quickly to mitigate potential cost impacts from CBAM by evaluating the specific effects on their supply chains and the maturity of suppliers' emissions reporting [14]. - Short-term strategies include close communication with suppliers to encourage cleaner steel production and incorporating carbon metrics into procurement processes [14]. - Long-term strategies may involve reconfiguring supply chains to prioritize regions with lower carbon production methods, potentially reducing CBAM-related costs significantly [14]. Group 6: Global Exporters' Response - Global exporters supplying the EU are also taking measures to decarbonize their production methods to remain competitive, with initiatives in countries like India and China aimed at improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions [17][18]. Group 7: Opportunities During the Transition Period - The transition period provided by CBAM offers time for proactive supplier collaboration, investment in cleaner production, and integrating carbon considerations into procurement decisions, which can help manage financial risks [20].