TSMC(US:TSM) 券商中国·2025-11-03 10:34Core Viewpoint - The global chip price surge is intensifying, with TSMC planning to raise prices for advanced processes (below 7nm) by 3% to 10% in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of price increases [2][3]. Group 1: TSMC Price Increases - TSMC has initiated annual negotiations with clients, expecting price hikes for advanced processes due to rising production costs and persistent capacity shortages [3]. - The price increase will vary based on individual client procurement levels and cooperation, with the most sought-after 3nm process expected to rise by at least a single-digit percentage [3][4]. - TSMC's advanced processes, particularly 5nm and 3nm, accounted for 60% of its revenue in Q2, with 3nm making up 23% and 5nm 37% [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, stocks of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics surged, with SK Hynix rising nearly 11% and Samsung over 3%, reaching new historical highs [2]. - A-share storage chip concept stocks also saw significant gains, with companies like Taiji Industry and Xiangnong Chip rising sharply [2]. Group 3: Memory Chip Market Dynamics - Samsung has paused October DDR5 DRAM contract pricing, leading other manufacturers like SK Hynix and Micron to follow suit, with expectations for price recovery delayed until mid-November [6]. - The memory market is shifting to a seller's market, with major suppliers only providing quotes to top-tier clients, causing spot market prices for DDR5 to spike by 25% in a week [6]. - Predictions indicate that DDR5 prices could see a sequential increase of 30% to 50% from Q4 this year to the first half of next year, potentially reaching $30 for 16Gb by mid-2026 [6]. Group 4: AI Demand and Future Outlook - The current price surge is viewed as the start of a "super cycle," driven by the increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) due to AI applications [7]. - Analysts predict that DRAM prices will rise by 18% to 23% in Q4, with HBM contributing to an overall increase of 23% to 28% [7]. - The DRAM and NAND Flash markets are experiencing shortages, with expectations for further price increases in Q4 and 2026 [7].